Talk:2009 Lebanese general election

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Percentage of votes[edit]

No reliable source confirms the percentages mentioned in the article. In fact, the only ones I found on the internet were either Al-Manar (extremely biased) or quoting Al-Manar or Hezbollah. I am deleted the said percentages off the article until someone finds a decent source. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 76.68.230.30 (talk) 04:10, 10 November 2010 (UTC)[reply]

1. To this date, only you are mentioning Al-Manar and Hezbollah.
2. Here are the official results by electoral district. Add the numbers and you will see. This official source is already added to the article.
3. Here is an analysis totally independent of Al-Manar by PhD candidate Elias Muhanna, Harvard University.
4. You deleted this source, equally totally independent of Al-Manar.
5. Here an analysis of lebanese pollster Kamal Feghali. His conclusion is that March 8 lost the election because they are winning their 6 top districts with 88%. In contrast, March 14 are winning their 6 top districts with 61%, so producing a net gain of 160.000 votes for the opposition. These votes are lost due to the majority voting system used in Lebanon.
Conclusion: Instead of analysis and research casting doubt by naming Al-Manar and Hezbollah. 86.56.12.224 (talk) 15:18, 12 November 2010 (UTC)[reply]

The percentages do look very weird. Looking at the official results of the elections that you provided in your link, I tried to computed the percentages and my calculations really do not match. For instance, could you explain how the percentages of Baalbak Hermel and Bcharre were computed ? The link you provided yields the following data for Bcharre:

Number of votes:

17183

Number of votes for the first winner (M 14): 13066 Number of votes for the second winner (M 14): 12751 I don't see how this can yield a percentage of 73.4%. Can you please provide the calculation details ? For Baalbak Hermel, the discrepancy between the numbers I'm getting and the average on the page is bigger (although this time it seems it is biased against M8. In any case, the percentages look weird, and these are not the only districts that look weird to me. ) For the time being I am not going to modify anything in the page, I'll wait for some explanation as to how the percentages are computed. If no reasonable explanation is given, I will make changes, or ask someone to check the neutrality of the page.

My personal opinion is that it does not make much sense to compute "popular vote" statistics in this system, since in the same district, two different candidates of the same coalition get different scores, and it is difficult to decide how to take into account those different scores (highest ? average ? median ?). Also, several large districts were known to be won in advance by one of the two sides, which affected participation in those districts, and it is unfair to judge the amount of support a certain coalition has in the population according to rules that are different from those that were set prior to the elections. If voters were told that this was a national referendum and not parliamentary elections, voters would have had a different behavior and participation would have been stronger, and this would have modified the figures.

It looks like the "general average" given at the bottom of the column is a simple non-weighted average. If this is indeed how it was computed, it is really absurd. There are districts which are much larger than others.

Finally I would like to note there is evidence that Kamal Feghali has given biased results in the past. In particular, his exit polls and all his previous polls had predicted an electoral victory for March 8. He never predicted an M14 victory.

As to the analysis of Elias Muhanna, before being able to comment on it, I need to know how those averages were computed.

All the numbers concerning the "popular vote", to my knowledge, are quoted from Lebanese sources. As mentioned above, there is no straightforward way to compute the popular vote, because the electoral system does not readily lend itself to such calculations, because it is not a one-man, one-vote system. To the best of my knowledge no foreign media came up with its own independent estimate of the popular vote. To do this, it would have to make choices in the statistical methodology that would be difficult to justify.

My general impression is that this wikipedia article is biased in favor of the pro-Hezbollah side. Lebpolit (talk) 23:17, 18 December 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Rewrite needed[edit]

This page needs to be rewritten. It's very confusing as it stands because it looks like the results were already announced before the vote (I have been watching this page for a few days). I'd do it myself, but I'm not familiar enough with the results.--Metallurgist (talk) 20:30, 8 June 2009 (UTC)[reply]


Lack of Neutrality and Quality[edit]

The article is uncceptable in the level of quality. Also take a look on the horrible links. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 94.187.19.97 (talk) 06:54, 9 June 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I will try to improve in a few weeks, based on sources from the ministry of interior and form observers' reports. Eklipse (talk) 09:42, 9 June 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Request: Vote Number Totals[edit]

When the actual number of votes for each candidate becomes available, can they be posted here? I'm actually curious about how the election would have turned out if there had been a one-person one-vote electoral system as opposed to the confessional set-aside system in place. —Preceding unsigned comment added by 216.91.12.76 (talk) 20:18, 9 June 2009 (UTC)[reply]

It seems Hezbollah's Al Manar network has published popular vote totals. They are claiming the opposition got 55% of the votes.
http://www.almanar.com.lb/NewsSite/NewsDetails.aspx?id=89269&language=en
When official results are released they should be included in the article. 216.91.12.76 (talk) 18:23, 10 June 2009 (UTC)[reply]

The "official results" external link is completely blank! Is that because the results have 'yet' to be fully released by the Lebanese government? Any idea how long it will take them? It's been a week since the elections and the actual seat allocation has long been known. . . Mnation2 (talk) 04:50, 15 June 2009 (UTC)[reply]

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