2024 Uruguayan general election
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Uruguay portal |
General elections will be held in Uruguay on 27 October 2024.[1] If no presidential candidate receives a majority in the first round of voting, a runoff will take place on Sunday 24 November 2024.
Background[edit]
Incumbent President Luis Lacalle Pou, who won the 2019 elections, cannot run again as the constitution bars a president from immediate re-election. As a result, the governing National Party has to nominate a new candidate.
Electoral system[edit]
The President of Uruguay is elected using the two-round system, with a run-off held if no candidate receives 50% of the vote in the first round. The 30 members of the Senate are elected by proportional representation in a single nationwide constituency. The vice president, elected on the same ballot as the president, becomes president of the Senate, with his vote being determinant in case of tie.[2] The 99 members of the Chamber of Representatives are elected by proportional representation in 19 multi-member constituencies based on the 19 departments. Seats are allocated using the highest averages method.[3]
The elections are held using the double simultaneous vote method, whereby voters cast a single vote for the party of their choice for all three seats of Presidency, Senate and Chamber of Representatives.
Presidential candidates[edit]
Presidential primaries will be held in April or June to select the candidates. Potential candidates include:[4][5]
- National Party
- Álvaro Delgado, Secretary of the Presidency (2020–present)
- Laura Raffo, President of the Montevideo Departmental Commission of the National Party (2020–present)
- Juan Sartori, Senator (2020–present)
- Jorge Gandini, Senator (2020–present)
- Broad Front
- Yamandú Orsi, Intendant of Canelones (2015–present)
- Carolina Cosse, Intendant of Montevideo (2020–present)
- Mario Bergara, Senator (2020–present)
- Andrés Lima, Intendant of Salto (2020–present)
- Colorado Party
- Gabriel Gurméndez Armand-Ugon, President of ANTEL (2020–2023)
- Robert Silva García, President of ANEP (2020–2023)
- Tabaré Viera, Minister of Tourism (2021–present)
- Andrés Ojeda, criminal lawyer and television pundit
- Gustavo Zubía, Representativa of Uruguay (2020–present)
- Guzmán Acosta y Lara, Director of Telecomunications in the Ministry of Industry, Energy and Mining (2020–2023)
- Cabildo Abierto
- Guido Manini Ríos, Senator (2020–present)
Opinion polls[edit]
Party polling[edit]
Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | FA | PN | PC | CA | PERI | PG | PI | Others | Und. | Blank/Abs. | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cifra[6] | 11–22 Apr 2024 | 1,000 | 45% | 32% | 7% | 3% | — | — | 1% | 12% | 13% | ||
Nómade[7] | 10–14 Apr 2024 | 1,042 | 46.5% | 32.9% | 4.7% | 2.4% | — | — | 0.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | — | 13.6% |
MPC Consultores[8] | 18–23 Mar 2024 | 900 | 34% | 23% | 7% | 9% | 1% | — | 1% | 3%[a] | 19% | 3% | 11% |
Cifra[9] | 7–20 Mar 2024 | 1,198 | 46% | 32% | 7% | 3% | — | — | 1% | 11% | 14% | ||
Factum[10] | 20 Feb–2 Mar 2024 | 900 | 43% | 29% | 8% | 7% | — | — | 3% | 6% | — | 4% | 14% |
Opción Consultores[11] | 14–28 Feb 2024 | 800 | 41% | 31% | 6% | 3% | 1% | — | 1% | 1% | 10% | 7% | 10% |
Equipos Consultores[12] | 15–27 Feb 2024 | 1,400 | 42% | 27% | 7% | 4% | — | — | — | 2%[b] | 13% | 5% | 15% |
Cifra[13] | 1–17 Feb 2024 | 1,001 | 47% | 31% | 6% | 2% | — | 2%[c] | 1% | 11% | 16% | ||
MPC Consultores[14] | 29 Jan–2 Feb 2024 | 960 | 34% | 22% | 6% | 10% | 1% | — | 2% | 3%[a] | 19% | 3% | 12% |
Nómade[15] | 22 Jan–2 Feb 2024 | 839 | 40.6% | 29.7% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.3% | — | — | 3.3%[d] | 17.8% | 0.8% | 10.9% |
MPC Consultores[16] | 15–20 Dec 2023 | 900 | 33% | 20% | 7% | 8% | — | — | — | 4% | 24% | 4% | 13% |
Factum[17] | 17–30 Nov 2023 | 900 | 42% | 26% | 9% | 7% | — | — | 3% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 16% |
Equipos Consultores[18] | 16–29 Nov 2023 | 1,204 | 45% | 29% | 7% | 2% | — | — | — | 2% | 12% | 3% | 16% |
Opción Consultores[19] | 4–20 Nov 2023 | 800 | 44% | 30% | 6% | 3% | 1% | — | 3% | — | 7% | 6% | 14% |
UPC[20][21] | 10–14 Nov 2023 | 500 | 45% | 27% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 2%[c] | 2% | 7% | 8% | 18% | |
Nómade[22] | 6–11 Nov 2023 | 975 | 41.6% | 23.0% | 4.3% | 3.7% | — | — | 1.1% | 1.8% | 23.3% | 1.2% | 18.6% |
Cifra[23] | 17 Oct–3 Nov 2023 | 1,002 | 44% | 31% | 6% | 2% | — | 1%[c] | 1% | 15% | 13% | ||
Equipos Consultores[24] | 5–18 Oct 2023 | 1,204 | 40% | 29% | 4% | 2% | 1% | — | — | 1% | 17% | 6% | 11% |
UPC[25] | 15–19 Sep 2023 | 400 | 45% | 29% | 6% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 7% | 16% |
Factum[26] | 21 Aug–6 Sep 2023 | 900 | 41% | 28% | 7% | 8% | — | — | 3% | 3% | 8% | 2% | 13% |
Cifra[27] | 17–31 Aug 2023 | 1,000 | 42% | 30% | 4% | 2% | — | — | 1% | 21% | 12% | ||
Equipos Consultores[28] | 10–23 Aug 2023 | 1,204 | 43% | 26% | 7% | 3% | 1% | — | 1% | 1%[b] | 15% | 3% | 17% |
Nómade[29] | 19–23 Jul 2023 | 902 | 40.6% | 25.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | — | — | 1.1% | 0.9% | 22.3% | 1.7% | 14.7% |
Cifra[30] | 15 Jun–2 Jul 2023 | 1,009 | 44% | 27% | 6% | 2% | — | 2%[c] | 1% | 18% | 17% | ||
Factum[31] | 21–28 Jun 2023 | 900 | 40% | 26% | 9% | 7% | — | — | 4% | 4% | 7% | 3% | 14% |
Equipos Consultores[32] | 2–16 Jun 2023 | 1,207 | 43% | 28% | 7% | 2% | 1% | — | 1% | 1% | 12% | 5% | 15% |
UPC[33] | 2–6 Jun 2023 | 400 | 45% | 29% | 5% | 4% | — | — | 1% | 3% | 7% | 6% | 16% |
Opción Consultores[34] | 15–22 May 2023 | 849 | 42% | 30% | 4% | 4% | 1% | — | 1% | 1% | 11% | 6% | 12% |
Factum[35] | 24 Apr–11 May 2023 | 900 | 41% | 23% | 8% | 11% | — | — | 4% | 3% | 7% | 3% | 18% |
Cifra[36] | 20 Apr–3 May 2023 | 987 | 41% | 30% | 3% | 4% | — | 2%[c] | 1% | 19% | 11% | ||
Equipos Consultores[37] | 11–24 Apr 2023 | 1,204 | 42% | 28% | 5% | 2% | — | — | 1% | — | 15% | 7% | 14% |
Nómade[38] | 3–17 Apr 2023 | 803 | 43.7% | 29.0% | 4.3% | 5.3% | — | — | 2.1% | 0.8% | 12.5% | 2.3% | 14.7% |
Cifra[39] | 15–27 Feb 2023 | 1,007 | 43% | 30% | 3% | 2% | — | 2%[c] | 1% | 19% | 13% | ||
Factum[40] | 11–20 Feb 2023 | 1,000 | 41% | 26% | 6% | 9% | — | — | 4% | 4% | 7% | 3% | 15% |
Equipos Consultores[41] | Feb 2023 | – | 43% | 24% | 9% | 3% | — | 1%[c] | 1% | 1% | n/a | n/a | 19% |
Nómade[42] | 3–17 Jan 2023 | 828 | 43.1% | 27.8% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.3%[e] | 14.1% | 1.3% | 15.3% |
Equipos Consultores[43] | Dec 2022 | – | 44% | 23% | 6% | 4% | 1% | — | — | 1% | 16% | 5% | 21% |
Opción Consultores[44] | 2–10 Nov 2022 | – | 40% | 28% | 6% | 5% | 1% | — | 1% | 1% | 12% | 6% | 12% |
Cifra[45] | 20–31 Oct 2022 | 810 | 43% | 31% | 4% | 2% | — | 1%[c] | 1% | 18% | 12% | ||
Factum[46] | 4–16 Oct 2022 | 800 | 41% | 27% | 8% | 8% | — | — | 3% | 3% | 7% | 3% | 14% |
Equipos Consultores[47] | 24 Jul–8 Oct 2022 | 1,900 | 38% | 28% | 5% | 3% | 1% | — | 1% | 2% | 20% | 5% | 10% |
Factum[48] | 3–13 Jun 2022 | 900 | 39% | 28% | 8% | 8% | — | — | 3% | 3% | 7% | 4% | 11% |
Equipos Consultores[49] | 23 Apr–7 May 2022 | 1,195 | 35% | 25% | 5% | 2% | — | — | — | 1% | 25% | 7% | 10% |
Factum[50] | 6–15 Nov 2021 | 900 | 39% | 30% | 8% | 9% | — | 1% | 2% | 2% | 7% | 2% | 9% |
Equipos Consultores[51] | Jul–Sep 2021 | 1,500 | 35% | 30% | 4% | 3% | — | — | 1% | 1% | 19% | 7% | 5% |
Opción Consultores[52] | 13–20 May 2021 | 824 | 34% | 33% | 5% | 5% | 1% | — | 1% | 2% | 11% | 8% | 1% |
2019 election, 1st round | 27 October 2019 | – | 39.0% | 28.6% | 12.3% | 11.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.9% | — | 3.6% | 10.4% |
Party polling with hypothetical presidential candidates[edit]
Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
FA | PN | PC | CA | PERI | PI | Lead | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Orsi | Cosse | Delgado | Raffo | ||||||||
Equipos Consultores[53] | 15–27 Feb 2024 | 1,400 | 44% | — | 26% | — | 5% | 9% | — | 2% | 18% |
45% | — | — | 22% | 8% | 10% | — | 3% | 23% | |||
— | 37% | 30% | — | 6% | 10% | — | 2% | 7% | |||
— | 37% | — | 21% | 10% | 11% | — | 5% | 16% | |||
Opción Consultores[54] | 14–28 Feb 2024 | 800 | 40% | — | 33% | — | 4% | 5% | 1% | 3% | 7% |
— | 39% | 35% | — | 6% | 5% | 1% | 3% | 4% | |||
Equipos Consultores[55] | 16–29 Nov 2023 | 1,204 | 47% | — | 29% | — | 5% | 7% | — | 3% | 18% |
46% | — | — | 24% | 8% | 8% | — | 4% | 22% | |||
— | 42% | 31% | — | 7% | 7% | — | 4% | 11% | |||
— | 42% | — | 24% | 10% | 7% | — | 5% | 18% | |||
Opción Consultores[56] | 4–20 Nov 2023 | 800 | 45% | — | 27% | — | 8% | 6% | 1% | 4% | 18% |
— | 39% | 31% | — | 6% | 6% | 1% | 6% | 8% | |||
Equipos Consultores[57] | 2–16 Jun 2023 | 1,207 | 46% | — | 26% | — | 11% | 5% | — | 4% | 20% |
46% | — | — | 20% | 13% | 7% | — | 4% | 26% | |||
— | 39% | 25% | — | 13% | 6% | — | 6% | 14% | |||
— | 41% | — | 21% | 16% | 7% | — | 5% | 20% | |||
Opción Consultores[58] | 23 May–1 Jun 2022 | 800 | 40% | — | 22% | — | 12% | 8% | 1% | 3% | 18% |
— | 39% | 23% | — | 13% | 9% | 2% | 3% | 16% |
Presidential polling with hypothetical candidates[edit]
Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
FA | PN | PC | CA | Other | Und. | Blank/ Abs. | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Orsi | Cosse | Bergara | Other FA | Delgado | Raffo | Argimón | Other PN | Bordaberry | Other PC | Manini | Other CA | ||||||
Cifra[59] | 1–17 Feb 2024 | 1,001 | 24% | 11% | 1% | 2% | 18% | 6% | — | 2%[f] | — | 1%[g] | 2% | — | 2%[h] | 30% | — |
Cifra[60] | 17 Oct–3 Nov 2023 | 1,002 | 20% | 9% | 1% | 5% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 4%[i] | — | 1%[g] | 3% | — | 1%[h] | 38% | — |
Cifra[61] | 17–31 Aug 2023 | 1,000 | 23% | 8% | 1% | 5% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 2% | — | 3% | — | 1%[h] | 37% | — |
Cifra[62] | 15 Jun–2 Jul 2023 | 1,009 | 20% | 12% | 1% | 7% | 10% | 5% | 1% | 3% | 3% | — | 2% | — | 1%[h] | 35% | — |
Cifra[63] | 20 Apr–3 May 2023 | 987 | 22% | 10% | 1% | 4% | 13% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 2% | — | 4% | — | 2%[h] | 34% | — |
Nómade[38] | 3–17 Apr 2023 | 803 | 17.2% | 11.2% | 0.7% | 0.7%[j] | 5.7% | 0.6% | — | 5.3%[k] | 0.9% | — | 4.0% | — | 4.5% | 45.9% | 3.3% |
Cifra[64] | 4–14 Aug 2022 | 704 | 17.5% | 8.9% | — | 9.9% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 7.7%[l] | 3.0% | — | 2.8% | — | 2.8%[h] | 33.8% | — |
Opción Consultores[58] | 23 May–1 Jun 2022 | 800 | 9% | 6% | [m] | 8% | 5% | [n] | 1% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 1%[h] | 62% | — |
- Notes
- ^ a b 1% for Constitutional Environmentalist Party and 1% for Sovereign Identity Party
- ^ a b 1% for Popular Unity
- ^ a b c d e f g h Unspecified or other Multicolor parties
- ^ 1.1% for Constitutional Environmentalist Party
- ^ 0.3% for Green Animalist Party
- ^ 1% for Jorge Gandini and 1% for Juan Sartori
- ^ a b 1% for Robert Silva
- ^ a b c d e f g A different Multicolor candidate
- ^ 1% for Jorge Gandini
- ^ 0.7% for Óscar Andrade
- ^ 5.3% of respondents named incumbent president Luis Lacalle Pou, who is ineligible for re-election
- ^ 7.7% of respondents named incumbent president Luis Lacalle Pou, who is ineligible for re-election
- ^ included with other FA
- ^ included with other FN
Second round[edit]
Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
FA | PN | Und. | Blank/ Abs. |
Lead | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Orsi | Cosse | Delgado | Raffo | ||||||
Nómade[65] | 10–14 Apr 2024 | 1,042 | 53.4% | — | 46.6% | — | — | — | 7% |
— | 48.7% | 51.3% | — | — | — | 17% | |||
Equipos Consultores[66] | 15–27 Feb 2024 | 1,400 | 48% | — | 41% | — | 7% | 4% | 7% |
52% | — | — | 35% | 8% | 5% | 17% | |||
— | 42% | 44% | — | 8% | 6% | 2% | |||
— | 42% | — | 39% | 9% | 10% | 3% |
Notes[edit]
References[edit]
- ^ "Global elections calendar". NDI.
- ^ Electoral system IPU
- ^ Electoral system IPU
- ^ "¿Quiénes lideran la interna blanca y la frenteamplista? ¿Y por cuánto margen? Esto dice Opción". El País (in Spanish). 22 June 2023.
- ^ "LAS PREFERENCIAS INTERNAS EN EL FRENTE AMPLIO, PARTIDO NACIONAL Y PARTIDO COLORADO". Equipo Consultores (in Spanish). 21 December 2023.
- ^ "INTENCIÓN DE VOTO "SI LAS ELECCIONES FUERAN HOY"" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Uruguay: una encuesta proyecta un triunfo por 7 puntos de la oposición en segunda vuelta" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Investigación Nacional MPC Abril 2024".
- ^ "INTENCIÓN DE VOTO "SI LAS ELECCIONES FUERAN HOY"" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Estimación de Voto por Partido – 1º Bimestre 2024".
- ^ "Preferencias Partidarias – Febrero 2024".
- ^ "SIMPATÍA POLÍTICA POR PARTIDO: FA 42%, PN 27%, PC 7%, CA 4%" (in Spanish).
- ^ "INTENCIÓN DE VOTO "SI LAS ELECCIONES FUERAN HOY"" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Investigación Nacional MPC Febrero 2024".
- ^ "Se fortalecen las precandidaturas con mayor adhesión" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Investigación Nacional MPC Diciembre 2023".
- ^ "Intención de voto por partido – 6º Bimestre 2023".
- ^ "SIMPATÍA POLÍTICA POR PARTIDO: FA 45%, PN 29%, PC 7%, CA 2%" (in Spanish).
- ^ "¿Qué votarían los uruguayos si las elecciones fueran hoy? Esto dice la última encuesta de Opción". El País.
- ^ "Según Usina de Percepción Ciudadana el Frente Amplio llega a 45% de intención de voto y la coalición suma 37%" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Elecciones 2024: Frente Amplio lidera preferencias con el 45 % según encuesta de la Usina de Percepción Ciudadana" (in Spanish).
- ^ "El 17,5% de quienes fueron encuestados no sabe a qué partido votaría" (in Spanish).
- ^ "INTENCIÓN DE VOTO "SI LAS ELECCIONES FUERAN HOY"" (in Spanish).
- ^ "¿QUÉ VOTARÍAN LOS URUGUAYOS SI LAS ELECCIONES FUERAN HOY?" (in Spanish).
- ^ "45% votaría al Frente Amplio y 29% al Partido Nacional en las elecciones de 2024, según la Usina de Percepción Ciudadana" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Intención de voto por partido – 4º Bimestre 2023" (in Spanish).
- ^ "INTENCIÓN DE VOTO "SI LAS ELECCIONES FUERAN HOY"" (in Spanish).
- ^ "¿Qué votarían los uruguayos si las elecciones fueran hoy? Esto revela una nueva encuesta de Equipos" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Intención de voto: el Frente Amplio mantiene ventaja sobre la coalición de gobierno" (in Spanish).
- ^ "INTENCIÓN DE VOTO "SI LAS ELECCIONES FUERAN HOY"" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Intención de voto por partido – 3er Bimestre 2023" (in Spanish).
- ^ "¿A qué partido votarían los uruguayos si las elecciones fueran hoy? Esto concluyó una nueva encuesta de Equipos" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Elecciones 2024: el 45% votaría al Frente Amplio y el 29% al Partido Nacional" (in Spanish).
- ^ "¿A qué partido votarían los uruguayos si las elecciones fueran este domingo?". El Observador.
- ^ "Intención de voto por partido – 2º Bimestre" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Intención de voto: "empate técnico" entre coalición y Frente Amplio, según la última encuesta de Cifra" (in Spanish).
- ^ "SIMPATÍA POLÍTICA POR PARTIDO: FA 42%, PN 28%, PC 5%, CA 2%, PI 1%" (in Spanish).
- ^ a b "La intención de voto al Frente Amplio supera a la de la coalición" (in Spanish).
- ^ "INTENCIÓN DE VOTO "SI LAS ELECCIONES FUERAN HOY"" (in Spanish).
- ^ "La coalición de gobierno suma 45% de intención de voto y el Frente Amplio 41%, según la última encuesta de Factum" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Encuesta Equipos: FA 43%, Partido Nacional 24%, Partido Colorado 9%, Cabildo Abierto 3%" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Yamandú Orsi y Álvaro Delgado lideran la intención de voto dentro de sus partidos" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Encuesta de Equipos coloca al FA a la cabeza de la preferencia electoral, con 44 %" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Opción: el FA reúne 40% de la intención de voto, mientras que los blancos llegan a 28%". Montevideo Portal.
- ^ "INTENCIÓN DE VOTO "SI LAS ELECCIONES FUERAN HOY"" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Intención de voto por partido – Octubre 2022" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Encuesta de Equipos Consultores: FA 38%, PN 28%, PC 5%, CA 3%, 1% PI y 1% PERI" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Intención de voto: FA 39%; PN 28%; CA y PC 8% cada uno" (in Spanish).
- ^ "¿Qué votarían los uruguayos si las elecciones fueran hoy? La última encuesta de Equipos Consultores" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Intención de voto por partido - Noviembre 2021" (in Spanish).
- ^ "A dos años de las elecciones de 2019: ¿qué votarían hoy los uruguayos?". subrayado.com.uy (in Spanish). Retrieved 14 December 2021.
- ^ "Preferencias Partidarias - Mayo 2021". 6 July 2021.
- ^ "Encuesta de Equipos compara escenarios para las elecciones de octubre y noviembre según el candidato de cada partido" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Preferencias Partidarias – Febrero 2024".
- ^ "El Frente Amplio lidera otra encuesta de intención de voto" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Preferencias Partidarias – Diciembre 2023" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Encuesta de Equipos Consultores compara escenarios para las elecciones según el candidato de cada partido" (in Spanish).
- ^ a b "Preferencias presidenciales y escenarios de intención de voto" (in Spanish).
- ^ "LAS INTERNAS AL ARRANQUE FORMAL DE LA CAMPAÑA" (in Spanish).
- ^ "LOS PRE CANDIDATOS HOY" (in Spanish).
- ^ "LOS PRE CANDIDATOS HOY" (in Spanish).
- ^ "LOS PRE CANDIDATOS HOY" (in Spanish).
- ^ "LOS PRE CANDIDATOS HOY" (in Spanish).
- ^ "PRESIDENTE PREFERIDO PARA EL PROXIMO PERIODO" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Uruguay: una encuesta proyecta un triunfo por 7 puntos de la oposición en segunda vuelta" (in Spanish).
- ^ "Encuesta de Equipos compara escenarios para las elecciones de octubre y noviembre según el candidato de cada partido" (in Spanish).