2024 United States presidential election in New York
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The 2024 United States presidential election in New York is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. New York voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New York has 28 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.[1]
A populated northeastern state, New York has uninterruptedly voted Democratic since 1988, doing so by double digits since 1992. Two examples of the Empire State's strong Democratic status was in 2004, when John Kerry carried the state over incumbent Republican George W. Bush (despite the latter's response to the September 11th attacks, although he carried over 40% of the vote), and in 2016, when Hillary Clinton (who has resided in the state since 1999 and represented it in the Senate in the 2000s) carried over Republican Donald Trump, who is long associated with the state. Thus, New York is expected to be a safe blue state in 2024.
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[2]
Primary elections[edit]
Democratic primary[edit]
The 2024 New York Democratic presidential primary was held on April 2, 2024, alongside primaries in Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 288,138 | 80.7% | 268 | 268 | |
| Marianne Williamson | 15,573 | 4.4% | |||
| Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 11,309 | 3.2% | |||
| Blank ballots | 41,113 | 11.5% | |||
| Void ballots | 903 | 0.3% | |||
| Total: | 357,036 | 100.0% | 268 | 38 | 306 |
| Source: [3] | |||||
Primary polling[edit]
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden |
Different Candidate |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College | Sep 10–13, 2023 | 804 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 54% | 40% | 6% |
| Siena College | Aug 13–16, 2023 | 803 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| Siena College | Jun 20–25, 2023 | 817 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 54% | 40% | 6% |
| Siena College | May 7–11, 2023 | 810 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 56% | 40% | 4% |
| Siena College | Mar 19–22, 2023 | 802 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 43% | 51% | 7% |
Republican primary[edit]
The New York Republican primary was held on April 2, 2024, alongside the Connecticut primary.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 131,621 | 82.1% | 91 | ||
| Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 20,718 | 12.9% | |||
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 6,435 | 4.0% | |||
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 1,624 | 1.0% | |||
| Total: | 160,398 | 100.0% | 91 | 91 | |
| Source: [4] | |||||
General election[edit]
Predictions[edit]
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[5] | Solid D | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[6] | Solid D | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[7] | Solid D | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[8] | Solid D | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[9] | Solid D | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[10] | Solid D | January 14, 2024 |
Polling[edit]
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College | February 12–14, 2024 | 806 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 42% | 32% | 13% | 6% | 7% |
| Siena College | January 14–17, 2024 | 807 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 41% | 32% | 13% | 3% | 11% |
| Siena College | November 12–15, 2023 | 803 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 37% | 28% | 18% | 5% | 11% |
| Siena College | October 15–19, 2023 | 1,225 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 38% | 31% | 13% | 5% | 12% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College | April 15–17, 2024 | 806 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 47% | 37% | 16% |
| Siena College | February 12–14, 2024 | 806 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 48% | 36% | 16% |
| Siena College | January 14–17, 2024 | 807 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 46% | 37% | 17% |
| Siena College | November 12–15, 2023 | 803 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 46% | 36% | 18% |
| Siena College | October 15–19, 2023 | 1,225 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 37% | 17% |
| Siena College | August 13–16, 2023 | 803 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 34% | 19% |
| Siena College | June 20–25, 2023 | 817 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 50% | 28% | 21% |
| SurveyUSA | November 3–6, 2022 | 918 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 46% | 34% | 20% |
| Emerson College | October 20–24, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 40% | 13% |
| SurveyUSA | October 14–18, 2022 | 1,018 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 37% | 21% |
| Emerson College | September 4–6, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 37% | 10% |
| SurveyUSA | August 17–21, 2022 | 715 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 49% | 29% | 22% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R) | August 7–9, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 40% | 8% |
See also[edit]
- United States presidential elections in New York
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes[edit]
- Partisan clients
References[edit]
- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
- ^ "Certified 2024 Democratic Presidential Primary Results". New York State Board of Elections. Retrieved May 1, 2024.
- ^ "New York Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved April 1, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
