User:John J. Bulten/Straw polls for the Democratic Party 2008 presidential nomination
Numerous straw polls were held for the Democratic Party's 2008 United States presidential nomination. Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama lead all Democratic candidates in total straw poll victories.
The following sections collect local-event-based public straw polls where American voters selected among Democratic candidates. In event-based polls, like the election itself, public response is generally widely solicited for a particular event or registration process; the sample represents only willing, eligible people who become aware of the process through advertising and choose to enter, and sometimes an event fee is paid. By contrast, in demographic polls (such as the Democratic opinion polls), through a private random selection process, a subset of the target public is chosen as statistically representative, and individual responses are solicited, generally by phone; the sample represents only willing, eligible people from a statistical cross-section of the voter base. Demographic polls are regarded as more statistically accurate pictures of public opinion, while straw polls provide important interactive dialogue among movements, reflecting trends like organization and motivation.[1][2]
Democratic straw poll results[edit]
Because varying presentation methods of the same statistics can subjectively affect perceived results, several reasonable presentation methods are contrasted below. Except for the candidate list and narrative presentation, only the active registered multistate Democratic campaigns as of January 3 2008 (the first primary) are considered.
Candidates[edit]
The following official and potential 2008 candidates have appeared in Democratic straw poll results: Jared Ball, Evan Bayh, Joe Biden, Barbara Boxer, Wesley Clark, Hillary Clinton, Howard Dean, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Russ Feingold, Al Gore, Mike Gravel, John Kerry, Dennis Kucinich, Cynthia McKinney, Frank Moore, Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, Tom Vilsack, Mark Warner. The category "Other" includes all other straw poll responses (undecided, blank, fictitious, invalid, etc.) and is treated as an additional candidate for ranking purposes.
Recent winners map[edit]
Each state and D.C. has been colored to represent its last straw poll winner.[3] State coloring is not necessarily representative of primary or general election results in the state since many straw polls are smaller, local events, often conducted months before the primary. The numbers of states in which each candidate has won the state's latest straw poll are as follows:
1. Barack Obama (9)
2. Hillary Clinton (4)
3. John Edwards (3)
4. Chris Dodd (1)
5. Joe Biden, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Bill Richardson (0)
Narrative[edit]
The following 33 poll results (including 10 multiparty polls) are sorted by U.S. state. Where data is incomplete, it reflects all data available at source.[4][5][6]
Arizona
| Poll Source | Date (Count) | Highlights |
|---|---|---|
| District 8 Democrats AZ |
2007-08-21 (35) | Al Gore 18 (51%), John Edwards 6 (17%), Hillary Clinton 5 (14%), Barack Obama 3 (9%), Joe Biden 2 (6%), Dennis Kucinich 1 (3%). |
California
| Poll Source | Date (Count) | Highlights |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Straw Poll San Mateo CA |
2007-10-21 (1000?) | John Edwards 290+ (29%), Dennis Kucinich 240+ (24%), Barack Obama 171, Hillary Clinton 128, Other 5th, Al Gore 23, Bill Richardson 7th, Joe Biden 8th, Chris Dodd 8th, Mike Gravel 8th. |
| San Diego Convention San Diego CA |
2007-09-08 (291) | Hillary Clinton 74 (25.4%), John Edwards 63 (21.6%), Barack Obama 46 (15.8%), Dennis Kucinich 40 (13.7%), Al Gore 40 (13.7%), Bill Richardson 26 (8.9%), Other 2 (0.7%). |
Florida
| Poll Source | Date (Count) | Highlights |
|---|---|---|
| University of South Florida Pinellas County FL |
2008-01-22 (900?) | Barack Obama 54%, Hillary Clinton 33%, John Edwards 8%, Other 5%. |
| FL Democratic Convention |
2007-10-28 (703) | Hillary Clinton 296 (42.1%), Barack Obama 110 (15.6%), John Edwards 108 (15.4%), Al Gore 82 (11.7%), Dennis Kucinich 45 (6.4%), Bill Richardson 31 (4.4%), Joe Biden 20 (2.8%), Mike Gravel 7 (1.0%), Chris Dodd 2 (0.3%), Other 2 (0.3%). |
| Florida State Fair FL |
2007-02-19 (2750) | Hillary Clinton 1517 (55.16%), Barack Obama 466 (16.95%), John Edwards 335 (12.18%), Al Gore 211 (7.67%), Joe Biden 52 (1.89%), Bill Richardson 44 (1.60%), Dennis Kucinich 38 (1.38%), Wesley Clark 30 (1.09%), Howard Dean 18 (0.65%), Tom Vilsack 15 (0.55%), Chris Dodd 10 (0.36%), Barbara Boxer 7 (0.25%), Other 7 (0.25%). |
Idaho
| Poll Source | Date (Count) | Highlights |
|---|---|---|
| Nez Perce County ID |
2007-07-16 (59) | Barack Obama 18 (31%), Hillary Clinton 16 (27%), Bill Richardson 8 (14%), John Edwards 6 (10%), Other 5 (8%), Joe Biden 3 (5%), Dennis Kucinich 2 (3%), Mike Gravel 1 (2%). |
Illinois
| Poll Source | Date (Count) | Highlights |
|---|---|---|
| Dupage County Fair Dupage County IL |
2007-08-09 (431) | Barack Obama 60%, Hillary Clinton 25%, John Edwards 8%, Other 7%. |
| Kane County Fair Kane County IL |
2007-08-09 (277) | Barack Obama 53%, Hillary Clinton 27%, John Edwards 10%, Other 10%. |
Kentucky
| Poll Source | Date (Count) | Highlights |
|---|---|---|
| Kentucky State Fair KY |
2007-08-29 (835) | Hillary Clinton 349 (41.8%), Barack Obama 195 (23.4%), John Edwards 183 (21.9%), Bill Richardson 31 (3.7%), Chris Dodd 25 (3.0%), Joe Biden 21 (2.5%), Dennis Kucinich 17 (2.0%), Mike Gravel 14 (1.7%). |
Maryland
| Poll Source | Date (Count) | Highlights |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party Poll Blue Crab MD |
2007-03-07 (4382) | Barack Obama 1444 (32.95%), Al Gore 883 (20.15%), Hillary Clinton 683 (15.59%), John Edwards 594 (13.56%), Bill Richardson 336 (7.67%), Wesley Clark 180 (4.11%), Joe Biden 98 (2.24%), Dennis Kucinich 89 (2.03%), Other 50 (1.14%), Chris Dodd 25 (0.57%). |
Massachusetts
| Poll Source | Date (Count) | Highlights |
|---|---|---|
| National Caucus #136 Needham MA |
2007-12-07 (9) | Barack Obama 1st, Dennis Kucinich 2nd, John Edwards 3rd, Hillary Clinton 4th. |
Minnesota
| Poll Source | Date (Count) | Highlights |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Caucus MN |
2007-03-07 (1216) | Hillary Clinton 324 (26.6%), Barack Obama 323 (26.6%), Other 207 (17.0%), John Edwards 176 (14.5%), Bill Richardson 115 (9.5%), Al Gore 31 (2.5%), Wesley Clark 17 (1.4%), Joe Biden 13 (1.1%), Chris Dodd 6 (0.5%), Tom Vilsack 4 (0.3%). |
Nebraska
| Poll Source | Date (Count) | Highlights |
|---|---|---|
| HHD Farm Bureau[1] NE |
2007-09-14 (165) | Barack Obama 35%, Hillary Clinton 31%, Other 18%, John Edwards 16%. |
| Nebraska Democrats NE |
2007-02-15 (676?) | Hillary Clinton 20%, John Edwards 15%, Wesley Clark 11%, Mark Warner 10%, Russ Feingold 8%, Other 7%, Tom Vilsack 6%, Joe Biden 5%, Evan Bayh 5%, Bill Richardson 5%, John Kerry 4%, Barack Obama 3%, Al Gore 1%. |
New Jersey
| Poll Source | Date (Count) | Highlights |
|---|---|---|
| National Caucus #126 Roselle Park NJ |
2007-12-07 (200?) | John Edwards 70+, Barack Obama 60+, Dennis Kucinich 30+. |
New York
| Poll Source | Date (Count) | Highlights |
|---|---|---|
| Bellmore-Merrick Democratic Club[2] Merrick NY |
2008-01-30 (256) | Barack Obama 143 (55.9%), Hillary Clinton 108 (42.2%), John Edwards 3 (1.2%), Dennis Kucinich 2 (0.8%). |
Oregon
| Poll Source | Date (Count) | Highlights |
|---|---|---|
| Sunriver Straw Poll Sunriver OR |
2007-10-07 (144?) | Barack Obama 49, John Edwards 47, Hillary Clinton 36, Bill Richardson 12. |
South Carolina
| Poll Source | Date (Count) | Highlights |
|---|---|---|
| York County Democrats York County SC |
2007-03-05 (100?) | Chris Dodd 28%, Barack Obama 24%, Hillary Clinton 18%, John Edwards 11%, Al Gore 8%, Joe Biden 5.5%, Other 5.5%. |
Texas
| Poll Source | Date (Count) | Highlights |
|---|---|---|
| Gregg County Fair Gregg County TX |
2007-09-18 (142-149) | Hillary Clinton 55-58 (39%), Barack Obama 52-55 (37%), John Edwards 14-15 (10%), Dennis Kucinich 6 (4%), Other 6 (4%), Bill Richardson 4 (3%), Al Gore 2 (1%), Joe Biden 1 (1%), Chris Dodd 1 (1%), Mike Gravel 1 (1%). |
Vermont
| Poll Source | Date (Count) | Highlights |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party Poll VT |
2007-08-01 (800?) | Barack Obama 36.0%, John Edwards 29.2%, Hillary Clinton 10.2%, Bill Richardson 9.7%, Dennis Kucinich 8.2%, Other 4.2%, Joe Biden 3.7%, Mike Gravel 1%, Chris Dodd 0.3%. |
Virginia
| Poll Source | Date (Count) | Highlights |
|---|---|---|
| Falls Church Falls Church VA |
2007-04-23 (103) | John Edwards 35 (34%), Barack Obama 34 (33%), Hillary Clinton 20 (19%), Bill Richardson 12 (12%), Joe Biden 2 (2%). |
Wisconsin
| Poll Source | Date (Count) | Highlights |
|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin Fair WI |
2007-08-05 (1401) | Hillary Clinton 521 (37.2%), Barack Obama 359 (25.6%), John Edwards 217 (15.5%), Al Gore 144 (10.3%), Dennis Kucinich 69 (4.9%), Joe Biden 35 (2.5%), Bill Richardson 24 (1.7%), Chris Dodd 17 (1.2%), Mike Gravel 15 (1.1%). |
Multiparty
| Poll Source | Date (Count) | Highlights |
|---|---|---|
| Middletown Presidential Poll Middletown CT |
2008-01-26 | Ron Paul 42%, Hillary Clinton 30%, Barack Obama 20%, Other 4%, John McCain 2%, Mitt Romney 2%. |
| National Caucus #125 San Marcos CA |
2007-12-07 (18) | John McCain 5 (28%), Barack Obama 3 (17%), Other 3 (17%), Hillary Clinton 2 (11%), John Edwards 1 (6%), Mike Huckabee 1 (6%), Ralph Nader 1 (6%), Ron Paul 1 (6%), Mitt Romney 1 (6%). |
| National Caucus #108 Chicago IL |
2007-12-07 (6) | Cynthia McKinney 3 (50%), Jared Ball 1 (17%), Frank Moore 1 (17%), Ron Paul 1 (17%). |
| National Caucus #120 Pineville MO |
2007-12-07 (18) | Ron Paul 15 (83%), Other 2 (11%), Tom Tancredo 1 (6%). |
| National Caucus #135 Richmond MO |
2007-12-07 (21) | Fred Thompson 6 (29%), Mike Huckabee 3 (14%), Hillary Clinton 2 (10%), Rudy Giuliani 2 (10%), Barack Obama 2 (10%), Bill Richardson 2 (10%), John Edwards 1 (5%), Al Gore 1 (5%), John McCain 1 (5%), Mitt Romney 1 (5%). |
| Pioneer Park Straw Poll St Petersburg FL |
2007-11-28 (322) | Ron Paul 240 (74.5%), Other 56 (17.4%), Dennis Kucinich 26 (8.1%). |
| FRC Values Voters Poll Washington DC |
2007-10-20 (5775) | Mitt Romney 1595 (27.62%), Mike Huckabee 1565 (27.10%), Ron Paul 865 (14.98%), Fred Thompson 564 (9.77%), Other 396 (6.86%), Sam Brownback 297 (5.14%), Duncan Hunter 140 (2.42%), Tom Tancredo 133 (2.30%), Rudy Giuliani 107 (1.85%), John McCain 81 (1.40%), Barack Obama 9 (0.16%), Joe Biden 5 (0.09%), Hillary Clinton 5 (0.09%), John Edwards 4 (0.07%), Dennis Kucinich 4 (0.07%), Christopher Dodd 2 (0.03%), Bill Richardson 2 (0.03%), Mike Gravel 1 (0.02%). |
| Blue Hill Fair Blue Hill ME |
2007-09-06 (595) | Hillary Clinton 156 (26.2%), Barack Obama 120 (20.2%), Other 52 (8.7%), John Edwards 47 (7.9%), Mitt Romney 46 (7.7%), Rudy Giuliani 43 (7.2%), Fred Thompson 40 (6.7%), Dennis Kucinich 28 (4.7%), Bill Richardson 18 (3.0%), John McCain 12 (2.0%), Ron Paul 8 (1.3%), Mike Huckabee 6 (1.0%), Joe Biden 5 (0.8%), Chris Dodd 5 (0.8%), Mike Gravel 4 (0.7%), Sam Brownback 3 (0.5%), Duncan Hunter 1 (0.2%), Tom Tancredo 1 (0.2%). |
| CNHT Family Reunion Picnic NH |
2007-07-07 (294) | Ron Paul 182 (61.9%), Rudy Giuliani 22 (7.5%), Daniel Gilbert 20 (6.8%), Mitt Romney 13 (4.4%), Mike Huckabee 10 (3.4%), Tommy Thompson 9 (3.1%), Sam Brownback 8 (2.7%), Duncan Hunter 6 (2.0%), Newt Gingrich 5 (1.7%), John Cox 4 (1.4%), Fred Thompson 4 (1.4%), Tom Tancredo 3 (1.0%), Robert Haines 2 (0.7%), George Phillies 2 (0.7%), Dennis Kucinich 1 (0.3%), John McCain 1 (0.3%), Barack Obama 1 (0.3%), Other 1 (0.3%). |
| National Taxpayers Conference DC |
2007-06-16 (144) | Fred Thompson 37 (26%), Ron Paul 24 (17%), Rudy Giuliani 18 (13%), Mitt Romney 13 (9%), John McCain 8 (6%), Mike Huckabee 7 (5%), Jim Gilmore 6 (4%), Newt Gingrich 5 (3%), Other 4 (3%), Sam Brownback 3 (2%), Duncan Hunter 3 (2%), Tom Tancredo 3 (2%), Dick Armey 2 (1%), Hillary Clinton 2 (1%), Barack Obama 2 (1%), Tommy Thompson 2 (1%), Jeb Bush 1 (1%), Tom Coburn 1 (1%), Steve Forbes 1 (1%), Mike Gravel 1 (1%), Bill Richardson 1 (1%), Joe Biden 0 (0%), Chris Dodd 0 (0%), John Edwards 0 (0%), Dennis Kucinich 0 (0%). |
Raw data[edit]
Data suitable for spreadsheet import (letters represent hexadecimal-plus characters).
|
Standing and votes |
|---|
|
Standings JB 856785M 676 56D 8 C87 HC 113313D 231223111213C41 4 4 3 222 CD B1A9 M 98 5D 8 G89 JE 234441M 423332342432E13 5 3 713 3 MG H 889 8F 8 I88 DK 7 8 MF755 6784 4 E253 2 3 4 BO C22122DF112114223121B32 2 1 32131 BR 86 554H 347 496 64G76 3 Votes (including all other votes as "XX") JB x 52 x 98 13 2 0 3 x 35 2 21 5 1 5 x 20 HC x 1517 x 683 324 20 2 16 x 521 x x 5 349 156 74 x 55 36 5 128 296 2 x 2 x x 108 CD 10 x 25 6 0 x 17 25 5 1 2 x 2 JE x 335 x 594 176 35 0 6 x 217 x x 6 183 47 63 x 14 47 4 290 108 1 x 1 70 x 3 MG 1 1 x 15 14 4 1 1 x 7 DK 38 89 0 1 2 x 69 1 17 28 40 6 4 240 45 26 x 30 2 BO x 466 x 1444 323 34 2 1 18 x 359 x x 3 195 120 46 x 52 49 9 171 110 3 x 2 60 x x 143 BR x 44 336 115 12 1 8 x 24 31 18 26 4 12 2 x 31 2 XX x 288 x 1113 259 138 292 5 x 144 x x 18 212 42 x 8 5743 23 84 296 12 6 18 14 x x |
Head-to-head[edit]
Records of wins, losses, and ties grouped by the Condorcet method.[7][8]
1. Obama beats Biden 16-1, Clinton 15-11-2, Dodd 12-1, Edwards 22-6, Gravel 10-0, Kucinich 16-1-1, Richardson 15-1-1 (7 wins)
2. Clinton beats Biden 16-0-1, Dodd 12-1, Edwards 21-6, Gravel 10-0, Kucinich 14-2, Richardson 17-0-1 (6 wins)
3. Edwards beats Biden 15-1-1, Dodd 11-1-1, Gravel 9-1, Kucinich 14-1-2, Richardson 15-3 (5 wins)
4. Kucinich beats Dodd 9-1-1, Gravel 9-1, Richardson 7-6, ties Biden 6-6-1 (3.5 wins)
5. Richardson beats Biden 11-3-1, Dodd 11-0-1, Gravel 9-0-1 (3 wins)
6. Biden beats Dodd 7-2-4, Gravel 7-1-2, ties Kucinich 6-6-1 (2.5 wins)
7. Dodd beats Gravel 4-3-2 (1 win)
8. Gravel beats none (0 wins)
Total wins[edit]
Total number of first-place finishes.
1. Obama (10)
2. Clinton (9)
3. Edwards (3)
4. Dodd (1)
5. Biden, Gravel, Kucinich, Richardson (0)
Win-place[edit]
Total number of top 2 finishes.[9]
1. Obama 10-11 (21)
2. Clinton 9-7 (16)
3. Edwards 3-5 (8)
4. Kucinich 0-2 (2)
5. Dodd 1-0 (1)
6. Biden 0-0, Gravel 0-0, Richardson 0-0 (0)
Win-place-show[edit]
Total number of top 3 finishes.[10]
1. Obama 10-11-4 (25)
2. Clinton 9-7-7 (23)
3. Edwards 3-5-10 (18)
4. Kucinich 0-2-2 (4)
5. Richardson 0-0-2 (2)
6. Dodd 1-0-0 (1)
7. Biden 0-0-0, Gravel 0-0-0 (0)
Olympic ratings[edit]
Top 3 finishes with 3 points for win, 2 for place, 1 for show.[10]
1. Obama 10-11-4 (54)
2. Clinton 9-7-7 (48)
3. Edwards 3-5-10 (29)
4. Kucinich 0-2-2 (6)
5. Dodd 1-0-0 (3)
6. Richardson 0-0-2 (2)
7. Biden 0-0-0, Gravel 0-0-0 (0)
NASCAR ratings[edit]
100 for win, 98 for place, 96 for show, etc., 0 if absent. This rating gives a high weight to total poll presences.[11]
Among 9 polls with no absences: Clinton 844, Obama 842, Edwards 808, Kucinich 774, Richardson 766, Biden 740, Dodd 722, Gravel 720.
Among 12 polls with up to 1 absent: Obama 1140, Clinton 1138, Edwards 1092, Richardson 1044, Kucinich 1036, Biden 1010, Dodd 884, Gravel 806.
Among 13 polls with up to 2 absent: Clinton 1238 (tie), Obama 1238 (tie), Edwards 1186, Richardson 1136, Biden 1096, Kucinich 1036, Dodd 968, Gravel 806.
Total votes[edit]
Votes (total 11807) in all cases where vote counts are reported.[10]
1. Clinton 4299 (36.41%)
2. Obama 3610 (30.58%)
3. Edwards 2200 (18.63%)
4. Richardson 666 (5.64%)
5. Kucinich 638 (5.40%)
6. Biden 257 (2.18%)
7. Dodd 93 (0.79%)
8. Gravel 44 (0.37%)
Recent votes[edit]
Votes (total 6076) taken after the Blue Crab Maryland Straw Poll of 2007-03-07, in all cases where vote counts are reported. This compares recent with overall performance, and avoids giving undue weight to the results of the single largest poll.[12]
1. Clinton 2099 (34.55%)
2. Obama 1700 (27.98%)
3. Edwards 1271 (20.92%)
4. Kucinich 511 (8.41%)
5. Richardson 286 (4.71%)
6. Biden 107 (1.76%)
7. Dodd 58 (0.95%)
8. Gravel 44 (0.72%)
References[edit]
- ^ "Vote on the Michigan Republican debate". MSNBC. Retrieved 2008-01-10.
- ^ Harwood, John (2007-10-12). "My Open Letter To Ron Paul Supporters". CNBC. Retrieved 2008-01-10.
- ^ "Ron Paul Straw Poll Results".
- ^ "Straw Poll Archive - Republican Democratic Straw Polls - 2008 Election".
- ^ "Election 2008 - Straw Polls".
- ^ "Straw Polls". Race42008.com.
- ^ "Ron Paul Now Beats all Candidates Head-to-Head in Straw Polls". Free Market News Network.
- ^ "Ron Paul Straw Polls".
- ^ "Straw Polls".
- ^ a b c "2008 Presidential GOP straw poll results".
- ^ "Scoring 2007 Republican Straw Poll Results". Isilion.
- ^ Brunner, Chris. "Cumulative Straw Poll Votes Since Iowa".
Category:Democratic Party (United States) presidential primaries Category:United States presidential primaries