Talk:Metaculus
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It is not necessary to put a copy of the draft on the draft talk page. Robert McClenon (talk) 21:47, 4 May 2019 (UTC)
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Metaculus[edit]
Metaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine.[1] One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs.[2][3] Reward system[edit]Three types of predictions can be made: probability predictions to binary questions that resolve as either 'yes' or 'no', numerical-range predictions, and date-range predictions.[4] Users can contribute to the community prediction for any given question, leave comments and discuss prediction strategies with other users.[5] Users can suggest new questions which, after moderation, will be opened to the community.[6] Users can earn points for successful predictions (or lose points for unsuccessful predictions), and track their own predictive progress.[7] The scoring awards points both for being right and for being more right than the community.[8] History[edit]Physicists Greg Laughlin, Anthony Aguirre and data scientist Max Wainwright launched the site in 2015.[9][10] In June 2017, the Metaculus prediction was launched, which is a system for aggregating user's predictions.[11] The Metaculus prediction, on average, outperforms the median of the community's predictions when evaluated using the Brier or Log scoring rules.[12][13] References[edit]
External links[edit] Wikimedia Commons has media related to Metaculus. |
Acceptance Note[edit]
This appears to be marginally notable. Robert McClenon (talk) 21:47, 4 May 2019 (UTC)
- I tried to collect sources where Metaculus was mentioned:
- - Nature News: https://www.nature.com/articles/538308a
- - Independent (UK): https://inews.co.uk/news/world/russia-ukraine-crisis-super-forecasters-putin-troops-1475721
- - Cited in academic research, e.g. "These features emulated typical forecasting platforms (for example, metaculus.com)." https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-022-01517-1
- - National Defense Magazine https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2022/12/15/modernizing-defense-through-crowdsourcing
- - Our World In Data Blog: https://ourworldindata.org/ai-timelines
- - Coindesk: https://www.coindesk.com/layer2/2022/06/04/forecasting-prediction-markets-and-the-age-of-better-information/
- - Vox: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/4/5/18290870/forecasting-tetlock-prediction-markets-betting, https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/4/8/21210193/coronavirus-forecasting-models-predictions
- - Quartz: https://qz.com/2069284/facebook-is-shutting-down-its-experimental-app-forecast (useful for locating related topics/sites)
- - HBR: https://hbr.org/2018/07/if-you-say-something-is-likely-how-likely-do-people-think-it-is AncientWalrus (talk) 19:15, 14 May 2023 (UTC)
- Missed this one https://time.com/5848271/superforecasters-covid-19/ AncientWalrus (talk) 19:17, 14 May 2023 (UTC)
Double Reference[edit]
The reference "Metaculus Track Record" seems to be repeated, but I can't edit this out. Maybe somebody who knows the markup better can do something about this.
Pranomostro (talk) 21:04, 13 May 2019 (UTC)
A Serious Man?[edit]
Wasn't that the book from the movie A Serious Man? — Preceding unsigned comment added by Longinus876 (talk • contribs) 01:24, 29 October 2019 (UTC)