Talk:Inverted yield curve

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Article should explain hypotheses for WHY a yield curve becomes inverted.[edit]

I have a couple of issues: 1) This article lacks a straightforward, understandable explanation of WHY a yield curve becomes inverted; 2) there is no mention of the expectations theory; 3) the reference to a liquidity trap is awkward and confusing, and 4) we can do better than to rely on Investopedia. I'll volunteer to craft some changes. Preliminary thoughts:

Expectations theory holds that long-term rates depicted in yield curve are a reflection of expected future short-term rates which in turn reflect expectations about future economic conditions and monetary policy. Applying expectations theory to the yield curve: investors expect economy to slip into recession, which would cause Federal Reserve monetary policy to transition from tightening (driving up interest rates) to easing (reducing interest rates). In that scenario, expected future short-term rates fall below current short-term rates. Result: the yield curve inverts. (Federal Reserve paper at https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/epr/08v14n1/0807rose.html)

And this: "Some argue that the shape of the yield curve contains an implicit forecast of future interest rates...If [investors] anticipate recession and lower interest rates, they try to lock in long-term yields, which drives down long-term interest rates...."'^[1]

Your feedback and thoughts are welcome. Cordially, BuzzWeiser196 (talk) 22:13, 2 February 2023 (UTC) BuzzWeiser196 (talk) 22:13, 2 February 2023 (UTC)[reply]

References

^ Thau, Annette (2001). The Bond Book (Revised ed.). New York: McGraw-Hill. ISBN 0-07-135862-5.

Greetings Wikipedians! My thoughts (see above)) have been here for months and nobody has objected. So I made the changes published today. There's more work to be done: you can barely discern inversion in the graphs of various yield curves at the beginning of the article, and the "outside the US" section has no text. My best to you! BuzzWeiser196 (talk) 16:36, 27 May 2023 (UTC)[reply]

Ideas for further improvement: 1) useful metric: spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yield. (Barron's: https://www.barrons.com/articles/recession-signal-yield-curve-inversion-254d910f) 2) Reuters explainer (https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/several-parts-us-yield-curve-are-inverted-what-does-it-tell-us-2022-11-01/)

[1] Thau, Annette (2001). The Bond Book (Revised ed.). New York: McGraw-Hill. ISBN 0-07-135862-5.

[1]