Talk:European debt crisis/Archive 3

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Archive 1

Archive 2

Archive 3

Projection

This section is unclear because it uses the present tense without dates in necessary places. In part, it seems to have been written around 2012, given "In 2012 some ...investors ... expect." Yet, later, a 2013 source [though the date is not seen in the text proper] is used. But this is followed by a >projection< for 2013 in the next-but-one sentence, from the same source (May 2013). The whole this is murky.211.225.34.160 (talk) 00:43, 2 August 2014 (UTC)

I moved the whole paragraph here:

==Projections==

In 2012 some hedge fund investors with reasonably good track records expect that the crisis will run its course in 3 to 5 years, saying "The perceived risk is greater than the actual risk". Even they shy away from investments in Greece, Italy and Spain.^[1]

Tony Barber, contributor to the Financial Times special report on the future of European Union, argues that "the introduction of stringent capital controls in Cyprus, as part of a €10 billion, European-led rescue of the island's economy and financial system, gives the lie to the notion that threat to the 17-nation eurozone's unity are receding."^[2] On the other hand, he notes that Europe's sovereign debt and banking crises are in a less dire state today than they were 12 months ago, largely because the European Central Bank has promised unlimited intervention to help vulnerable members-states.^[2] A degree of stability is also returning to public finances. Greek finance minister Yannis Stournaras, is expecting a primary budget surplus, which excludes debt interest payments, for 2013.^[2] In Germany, the question remains whether a banking union will require a revision of the EU's basic treaty, a position that is supported by German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble.^[2]

^ Nelson D. Schwartz (22 July 2012). "Hedge Fund Places Faith in Euro Zone". The New York Times. Retrieved 23 July 2012.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d Barber, Tony (9 May 2013). "EU seeks road to redemption". Financial Times. Retrieved 15 May 2013.

I think we should leave this section out altogether. Wikipedia is an encyclopedia. Lets focus on things that happened, rather then some future projections. --spitzl (talk) 11:11, 27 October 2014 (UTC)

Requested Move (new title)

In July 2013, a handful of active editors at the time, decided to rename our article from European sovereign debt crisis to Eurozone crisis. I was not engaged in the discussion back then, and will therefore now propose we instead rename the article to its most used term European debt crisis.

Term	Google Book hits	Google hits
European debt crisis	7,420	1,040,000
Eurozone crisis OR Euro zone crisis	9,430	538,000
European sovereign debt crisis	3,350	346,000
Eurozone debt crisis	599	346,000

The table above indicate, that "European debt crisis" is the most commonly used term for the event, which is the main reason why I also think we should adopt this title for the article. In some countries (like Denmark), the term "eurozone crisis" is even completely absent from our Danish vocabulary. We always refer to the crisis as "Den Europæiske gældskrise" (The European debt crisis), and nobody would understand the meaning of the term "eurozone krisen" (eurozone crisis). I know the English Wikipedia of course need to focus only on the English term, and not the Danish term for the crisis. But I just wanted to mention this Danish context, because I think we have presence of a logic reason explaining why it make good sense only referring to the crisis as the "European debt crisis" at the English Wikipedia.

Reason why it make more sense to use the term "European debt crisis" rather than "Eurozone crisis", is that the single word "debt" define the essence of what this entire crisis was all about. In essence, there was never a "Eurozone crisis" (indicating the eurozone itself should be in crisis), but instead we had a European sovereign debt crisis (indicating the majority of EU states experienced a sovereign "debt crisis", including France+Germany being above the 60%-limit defined in the Stability and Growth Pact). Some European states were of course hit by a more severe "debt crisis" than others. However, I insist that Germany was also hit by its very own "debt crisis", causing several years of subdued lower growth after its rebound from the Great Recession (due to a restraining of its own government spending for the purpose of restoring its own excessive debt-to-GDP ratio). The isolated problem in Germany, was that the expensive bank bailouts (related to the Great Recession) had caused a breach of the 60%-limit, meaning that Germany in order to adhere to its economic policy of "fiscal responsibility", had to run fiscal budgets in balance after having recovered from the Great Recession - in order to bring its debt-to-GDP ratio back at a downward trajectory towards a more healthy territory. What I attempt to say is, that if Germany had posted a debt-to-GDP ratio of 40% ultimo 2009 (instead of 80%), they would most certainly also have been ready to invest with some higher than normal government spending during 2010-2014 (with budget deficits still at 3% instead of 0%) as a help to kickstart the entire European economy (and not only focusing on restoring their own economy). In academic circles of economic science, it is the majority opinion, that if EU just from the start of its euro launch in January 1999, had managed to establish its recently born Banking union (with stricter ECB supervision and requirement for banks to bailout themselves without receiving bailouts from sovereign states) and the recently signed Fiscal Compact (ensuring sovereign states only run structural deficits of maximum -0.5% of GDP during years with positive growth, which ensure debt-to-GDP ratios will always stay at healthy levels), then there would have been absolutely no eruption of a "European sovereign debt crisis" (which lasted five years from 2010-14). The fundamental reason for eruption of the "European sovereign debt crisis" was, that those two heavily needed "EU instruments" (Banking union + Fiscal Compact) had not been created a decade ahead of the Great Recession. This is why, it also make fully sense to speak of the follow-up crisis after the Great Recession as a "European sovereign debt crisis". Because it was triggered by a decade long build-up, during the happy years of 1999-2007, of a European wide "debt problem" (including the invisible debt related to running way too high structural deficits during the best years of the economic cycle), caused fundamentally by some insufficient EU-regulation ahead of 2008, and not being limited to those states receiving bailouts in 2010-15. My point is, that from this perspective it only make fully sense that the word "debt" shall be included in the title (because the entire crisis is about serious "sovereign debt issues", forcing 20 out of 28 EU member states to implement growth reducing fiscal austerity shortly after having rebound from the Great Recession).

Moreover, I also think the scope of the article basically extends not only to the eurozone, but to all EU member states, as all EU member states got hit by the so-called "debt crisis" to a smaller or lesser extent, which is another final argument why it make fully sense to rename the title to "European debt crisis". The current title "Eurozone crisis" restrict the scope only to be about "eurozone states", and I think it is important to extend it, so that we also shortly can mention how big the fundamental "European debt crisis" hit all of the other EU member states (including table figures for how expensive their "bank bailouts" and pre-existing "structural deficits" were for their debt-to-GDP ratio), and shortly mentioning how the various states managed to overcome their "debt crisis". Even the UK, can be claimed to have suffered its own "debt crisis", but with the interesting note that UK solved its crisis by implementing a heavy QE (with the central bank buying 90% of its own government debt, and betting for inflation to solve its problem with its continously growing debts) - instead of starting to minimize its structural deficits straight from the first year after having rebound from the Great Recession. UK is particular interesting also to include data for, as they as the only EU member state largely are exempted to comply with the strict requirements of the SGP and the Fiscal Compact, and by allowing their central bank to buy unrestricted amounts of government bonds (QE) chose a completely different route to combat the "UK debt crisis", compared to the rest of EU.

In short, from the analytic perspective, it make good sense to speak about a "European sovereign debt crisis" related to the insufficient EU financial/fiscal regulations in place when the euro was born, investigating how bad this "insufficient regulation" affected each of the sovereign economies in the European Union when the Great Recession hit us in 2008-09 (including the impact of bank bailouts on the debt-to-GDP ratios). With this in mind, I think the previous name of our article "European sovereign debt crisis", was the most appropriate and precise one. However, I reckon the dilemma, that this term is not the one being most commonly used (because of its length), which is why I prefer we now rename the title to the most commonly used term European debt crisis (where "debt" in regards of the scope, obviously should work as the spoken/entitled shortage for "sovereign debt"). Let my know if you can support my proposal for this name change. Danish Expert (talk) 13:23, 25 November 2014 (UTC)

Support for requested move. The article starts defining the crisis: "...when a group of 10 central and eastern European banks asked for a bailout" (remark: in this quoted sentence it should be added that not only selected banks but whole states asked for and got bail-outs; this very fact that "western modern states" were threatened by bankruptcy made it for everybody a very severe debt crisis). If a bank or a state asks for and gets a bail-out nobody can deny that a classical "debt crisis" is being in place. It will probably not be easy to agree on a "crisis start/duration" with reference to specific debt levels (like 60% of GDP for states / what would it be for banks?) because each state and bank has a different asset/ performance/ productivity/ efficiency pattern and therefore can stand very different debt levels without being in a crisis (e.g. Russia has far less than 60% state debt level but structural/ behavior disadvantages position this country already now near a debt crisis with already high interest rates; Germany has far more than 60% debt level and is far from needing bail-outs which is also documented by the low interest rates at which it can borrow). The easiest and classical way to define the start and duration of a "debt crisis" is to reference if the debtor has problems or is stopping to service its debt contracts (and therefore needs and sometimes gets bail-outs), or if a debtor has to pay huge interest rate premiums to sell debt securities (i.e. to borrow fresh money). Hope this helps. --EconomicsEconomics (talk) 11:23, 4 December 2014 (UTC)

Your point make absolutely sense. I hereby retract my initial proposal to describe the situation as a "debt crisis" also in UK and Germany. But I still maintain that we, within the parameter of the article's scope, can mention how their "debt/deficit overhang challenge" triggered by the Great Recession, subsequently was tackled during the "European debt crisis". After your reply, I however agree with you its best to differentiate between states hit by "debt crisis" and "debt challenges". In example, Spain was only a state in "debt challange" at they never received any sovereign bailout, but only a bank recapitalization earmarked support package from ESM, meaning they do not strictly satisfy our criteria for being in a "sovereign debt crisis" (although I know their argument to accept the bank recapitalization package was that it was cheaper for them to finance it this way compared to paying a high market rate for these temporary loans). Despite Spain not strictly being in "debt crisis", I think the scope of the article allow their special situation is still described by a subchapter (as it is now). As only support has been posted for the requested move proposal, I will now execute it. Danish Expert (talk) 12:09, 6 December 2014 (UTC)

It it interesting to assess the situation in Spain to "sharpen" the article's content. The Spanish government (especially the regional governments) had promoted and pushed the banks to lend excessively to induce and continue the Spanish real estate boom. Therefore the Spanish authorities actively relaxed necessary and commonly agreed-on banking standards and thereby put the lending banks in Spain under their supervision at a (debt crisis) risk. The Spanish authorities were able to conduct this "political banking" because there was an implicit bail-out guarantee from the Spanish state to their banks. The politicians wanted to buy excessive economic growth in a risky fashion (which in return would "buy" them positive voters). If Spain had not hidden (i.e. made transparent) their bail-out guarantee the state would have needed to put up a debt provision in the state balance sheet as the promise to bail-out the banks under their national supervision was in the money (due to the relaxed banking standards). This debt provision would have shown that neither the Spanish state nor the Spanish banks were strong enough to induce and finance such a excessive real estate growth/bubble. Anyway, the hiding of significant short-term state liabilities (in Spain's case to bail-out their banks) is only possible for a very limited time. So the Spanish state could not conceal that a debt crisis was already real. As this article covers the issue of "state debt crisis" and "bank debt crisis" in European countries, Spain is part of the debt crisis. Because the funding need for over-indebted Spanish banks induced a debt problem in Spain's state budget that Spainish state could not solve anymore, it is very difficult to classify Spain as not being in a debt crisis. --EconomicsEconomics (talk) 11:35, 13 December 2014 (UTC)

Causes, policy reactions and launch of preventive new measures

On 12 February 2015, the 4 presidents (representing ECB, European Council, Eurogroup and European Commission) released this important analytical note, which summarizes the major causes of the European debt crisis and takes stock on the already implemented response in form of "policy reactions". Finally the report identifies the next steps the EU needs to take in the short term (during the upcoming 18 months), to further strengthen the EMU and combat remaining difficulties of the debt-crisis. I think all these findings of the analytical note are highly relevant, and should be reflected by the following chapters of our Wikipedia article: Causes (1), Policy reactions (3), Economic reforms (4), Proposed long-term solutions (5). Reason why its important, is that the note does not reflect the subjective view of 4 people - but tend to reflect the view of each of their huge offices of employed economic experts. So its findings can be regarded as the closest we get to a consensus view of the true underlying causes behind the European debt crisis, while it of course also is a primary source for the mentioning of the "next EU policy measures" in the making to combat the crisis. In short its findings can be summarized to the following citations:

"[For the purpose to ensure the following four EU treaty goals are obtained: inclusive and sustainable growth, price stability, sound fiscal positions and high levels of employment], making sure the EMU framework is fully compatible with the requirements of sharing a common currency was the key challenge faced in recent years, and remains a hurdle that has not yet been fully overcome."

"The crisis that started to hit the euro area as of summer 2007 and which continues to impact the economic development of several euro area members until today, had many roots and origins. While several of them are common to all industrialised countries, some of them are more strongly present in the euro area where they prolonged and intensified the effects of the crisis."

"At the onset, the crisis was primarily a financial crisis - spreading from US. A feature of particular relevance to the euro area was the negative feedback loop between bank and government sovereign debt: as banks that had become too systemic to fail got into financial difficulties and turned to their sovereign for help, the stability of the banking system could only be guaranteed to the detriment of the public finances of the countries concerned and at the cost of increased financial fragmentation. Thus, in these countries, a crisis of banks quickly became a crisis of public finances, with a direct impact on the real economy."

"The crisis then turned into a sovereign debt crisis, [mainly because] the first decade of the euro [(1999-2008)], [despite of being a boom period with real GDP growth exceeding the long-term average potential growth], had not led to a sustainable reduction of public debts and deficits below the reference values of 3% and 60% of GDP required by the Maastricht Treaty. When the crisis started to impact the euro area, its Member States reacted with important stimulus packages and injections of public money into their banking systems, which, while necessary to safeguard financial stability and soften the impact of the crisis, in many countries increased public debt and deficit well beyond the Maastricht reference values [because of the pre-crisis state of the government finances not being sound/strong enough to shoulder the heavy costs of the needed and implemented measures launched as the first short-term crisis response]."

"The crisis in the euro area, triggered by the global financial turmoil, can also be said to have been a competitiveness crisis, with several weaknesses predating the crisis. While there had been some catching up with the U.S. in terms of productivity until the 1990s, this process has stopped over time. Several euro area countries did not use the boom period to tackle existing rigidities in product and labour markets." "[The four eurozone states with highest rigidities in product and labour market (Portugal, Greece, Slovenia and Italy), were also among the five states experiencing the biggest negative change in the unemployment rate during the crisis years. While four of six eurozone states with highest growth of Unit Labour Costs from 2001-2009 (Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal), also were found to have suffered the highest increase of the unemployment rate during the crisis years 2009-13]."

"The relatively favourable financing conditions in the first years of the euro led to a misallocation of sources of financing towards less productive forms of investment, such as real estate, and to a greater risk-taking and indebtedness of many private and public actors. When the crisis hit the euro area and markets reappraised the risk and growth potential of individual countries, the loss of competitiveness became visible and led to outflows of sources of finance strongly needed for investment, thereby further intensifying the impact of the crisis in these countries. While several stakeholders at the European level had warned about such developments, the governance framework at the time did not provide for a systematic detection and correction of imbalances and hence it could not prevent their build-up."

"Last but not least, the crisis can also be said to be a crisis of markets in terms of their capacity to price country risk correctly. They failed to do so ahead of the crisis in 1999-2008. Instead, investors treated the euro area as one, without taking into account diverging economic and financial risks. The crisis made these divergences transparent; the ensuing reappraisal of risks then led to bond interest rates for certain euro area countries which were well above those of certain developing countries."

Measures taken since 2010 to strengthen the resilience of the EMU: ESM, Banking union (SSM+SRM+Single resolution fund), Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure, 2011+13 reform of the Stability and Growth Pact (nicknamed sixpack and twopack), Fiscal Compact, and Eurostat also had their powers strengthened in 2011 with regard to statistical data used for the commission's assessment of a state's compliance with targets set by the excessive deficit procedure (today Eurostat is entitled to examine Member States’ public accounts and to make on-the-spot investigations in the Member State concerned to validate the reported statistical figures).

"Increased shock resilience and higher potential growth, also demand a further action in terms of [implementing some much needed] national structural reforms. According to international indicators of labour and product market flexibility, euro area countries still exhibit significant rigidities which need to be tackled. Moreover, national governments need to create an environment which is favourable for entrepreneurs wanting to start a new firm or for existing firms to grow. In the World Bank rankings on the ease of doing business, there is only one euro area country (Finland) in the top 10, and several countries are not even in the top 50."

New short term (within the next 18 months) measures, being considered to be launched by the EU policy framework:

A new instrument to ensure "more effective commitments to growth-enhancing structural reforms" in the euro area.
The functioning of the Single Market needs to be improved through measures that will: Enhance labor mobility, establish a new common "Capital Markets Union" (for the purpose of integrating all the current diverse capital market - creating equal access to finance sources at the same low competitive price across all eurozone states), and finally the establishment of a "Digital single market" and "Energy Union".

As I am out of time, I will leave it for some of you to help integrate the above ten citation points into the article. Danish Expert (talk) 14:26, 18 March 2015 (UTC)

A very systematic compilation of the causes that the article urgently needs. Maybe you can be asked to renew the whole 'Causes' paragraph by writing it anew. Obviously, the current version is neither systematic nor understandable, nor efficiently modifiable, being the reason nobody improved it for long time. In the wikipedia ECB article there is also a condensed list of the causes that fits well to your systematic list ( see European_Central_Bank#Main_causes ). --EconomicsEconomics (talk) 20:20, 24 March 2015 (UTC)

Nobody really interested in the article, so I will start improving according to discussion.--EconomicsEconomics (talk) 15:43, 2 July 2015 (UTC)

Move back to Eurozone crisis

There had been a vote on the title of this article being Eurozone crisis: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:European_debt_crisis/Archive_2#Requested_Move

Two users moved the title to European debt crisis.(see above)

I cannot agree with this decision.

User Danish Expert stated that most used term is European debt crisis. This is not the case: Both according to google.com and google books the most common term is Euro crisis OR Eurocrisis, followed by Eurozone crisis OR Euro zone crisis.

Term	Google Book hits	Google hits
Euro crisis OR Eurocrisis	19,700	598,000
Eurozone crisis OR Euro zone crisis	16,200	562,000
European debt crisis	5,050	435,000
European sovereign debt crisis	3,870	247,000
Eurozone debt crisis	1,480	247,000

So nothing has changed since the last vote. Euro crisis is the most common, but it was agreed upon to use Eurozone crisis, as it is the second most common but gives a better description. The title should be moved back to Eurozone crisis again.

It is irrelevant what the crisis is called in the Danish Language.

The current title does not correspond to the content of the article. Iceland, Rumania and the Baltic countries suffered from a debt crisis too, they are in Europe, but not in the Eurozone (at the time they were hit by the debt crisis). If this article were about the European debt crisis, even those contries should be treated in the article (currently there are just some comparisons with the eurozone countries, which the article actually deals with).

Regards, --Patavium (talk) 10:24, 8 October 2015 (UTC)

Duplicate reference problem

The page has the error "Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name "Spanish_FFA" defined multiple times with different content". Looking at the source, though, I don't understand why the message occurs, as it seems to me that this reference name is defined only once. Could someone else have a look at this? a3nm (talk) 08:16, 12 October 2015 (UTC)

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Is the crisis finally over?

Today (August 30th 2017) the EU commission released a statement that the "Indicator of Economic Sentiment" (ESI) published by the German Centre for European Economic Research has reached 111.9 points in August 2017. This marks a new high compared to the beginning of the financial crisis in July 2007, and the beginning of the European debt crisis in 2009 (see graph here). In other words, the data suggests that the European debt crisis has finally come to an end. What do you think? Should we add a note to the article that after almost exactly ten years the crisis is finally over? spitzl (talk) 21:52, 30 August 2017 (UTC)

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Commons files used on this page have been nominated for deletion

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Participate in the deletion discussion at the nomination page. Community Tech bot (talk) 04:27, 25 July 2018 (UTC)

Commons files used on this page have been nominated for deletion

The following Wikimedia Commons files used on this page have been nominated for deletion:

Participate in the deletion discussion at the nomination page. Community Tech bot (talk) 05:27, 25 July 2018 (UTC)

[NYT72212-1] Nelson D. Schwartz (22 July 2012). "Hedge Fund Places Faith in Euro Zone". The New York Times. Retrieved 23 July 2012.

[FT_Barber_9-2] Barber, Tony (9 May 2013). "EU seeks road to redemption". Financial Times. Retrieved 15 May 2013.

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