Talk:Empirical probability

The phrase "a posteriori probability" is also used to refer to posterior probability, and of course that's certainly a different thing. Michael Hardy 01:38, 1 April 2007 (UTC)[reply]

I got this term Empirical probability out of a 7th grade math textbook, really. The web references are not 100% satisfactory. There is some relation to other things called empirical in statistics. Jmath666 02:07, 31 May 2007 (UTC)[reply]

The sunrise problem[edit]

I think the Sunrise_problem deserves a mention along with statistical models in the section of disadvantages, where the exact problem of estimating probabilities that are very high or very low is the background. Acknowledging that the sun a priori may rise or not rise, the best estimate of the probability counts one sunrise and one sunfail before the observations. This differs from the empirical estimate in a very simple and relatively intuitive way. (The sun is a bad example because we can so easily collect other evidence than sunrises that seemingly supports that it will rise. Choose another example, such as "What is the probability that existence exists tomorrow?", or... something better.) 37.44.138.159 (talk) 15:36, 2 September 2019 (UTC)[reply]