Talk:Constitution of Rwanda

Spurious Claim that "70% of the Rwandan Population was Female"

There is no evidence to support the claim--often cited in the literature, and possibly based on a statement made by the Rwandan Government--that the gender ratio in Rwanda was 70% female following the genocide. Simple math will reveal that it would have been impossible for the gender balance to shift so dramatically. Prior to the genocide, Rwanda's population of eight million was equally divided between males and females. If all one million people killed during the genocide were male, this would leave a population of seven million composed of four million women and three million men, or a ratio of 57% women to 43% men. However, we know that not all those who died were men, therefore the 70-30 ratio could only occur if large numbers of men left the country. We know that 1.2 million refugees fled Rwanda in July of 1994. If all of these refugees were male, then it would leave a total population of 5.8 million in Rwanda. The pre-genocide female population of Rwanda was around 4 million, which is 70% of 5.8 million. This would assume that not a single woman fled and no women died during the genocide, both of which are false.

In addition, the pre-genocide Tutsi population of Rwanda was only 15%. If every single Tutsi man died or fled the country, and all Tutsi women were spared (which we know is false) this would only shift the remaining population gender ratio by 7.5%, not enough to validate the 70% claim. Therefore the 70-30 ratio has no basis in fact, even though it is frequently quoted. Cmacauley (talk) 14:18, 15 December 2016 (UTC)