Talk:2017 Queensland state election

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Adani[edit]

The need to defend regional seats explains the Palaszczuk government's strong support for the Adani coal-mine project, despite the many economic and environmental questions about its desirability and viability. This will drive votes to the Greens in some parts of Brisbane, but probably not enough to threaten any Labor seats. Paul Benjamin Austin (talk) 08:07, 29 October 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Wikidata queries[edit]

I'll post some Wikidata queries here which might be useful:

--Canley (talk) 00:32, 30 October 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Retiring MPs[edit]

Can someone please add in the Liberal Nationals that Verity Barton has been deselected for the seat of Broadwater? Journostudent092 (talk) 23:25, 6 November 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Nominations close today, I'll add it if the final candidate list confirms she is not running as an independent. --Canley (talk) 00:30, 7 November 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Astrology?[edit]

What is that astrology forecast at bottom of this article? JennyOz (talk) 05:51, 9 November 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Weird! I have removed it. --Canley (talk) 08:36, 9 November 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Yep, weird alright! Thanks. JennyOz (talk) 09:09, 9 November 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Seats in doubt[edit]

So I have put 13 seats in doubt here - it differs from the ABC list by including Townsville (really don't know what's going on there) and excluding Glass House, which is showing up in the ABC's list despite being listed (and being clearly) "LNP retain". Frickeg (talk) 03:09, 26 November 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Thanks, I was working on one as well. I had the same inclusions and exclusions as you. --Canley (talk) 03:39, 26 November 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Whitsunday seems to be popping on and off the list, but given that I have seen zero discussion anywhere that it's in any danger I think we're OK leaving it off for now. Frickeg (talk) 05:09, 26 November 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Lots of people trying to take out Macalister. Given William Bowe and Kevin Bonham both still have it in doubt (and have provided reasoning), I really think it needs to stay there until we get more information. Certainly a Johnston victory is unlikely, but we've heard nothing about those Greens preferences yet so no harm in waiting a few more days (or until either/both of the above pull it off their list). Frickeg (talk) 07:27, 2 December 2017 (UTC)[reply]

So I have now listed these sources specifically as well. I understand Macalister is a lineball case, but Maiwar is more confusing and the ABC has been extremely opaque this election - it has not been at all clear what they are basing these calls on. What happened in Maiwar? There is no explanation anywhere that I can find - ABC just quietly took it off its list with no explanation. Until we have a clearer picture on either of these seats they should stay in doubt. See also: here's Nine News under an hour ago citing both as in doubt. Frickeg (talk) 07:04, 5 December 2017 (UTC)[reply]

As far as I can tell, ABC is modelling the preference distributions based on the original 2CP counts that ECQ published, and as more primary votes come in, they distribute them based on those proportions. --Canley (talk) 10:09, 5 December 2017 (UTC)[reply]

I think you're right, but these ones must have been manual decisions because their 2PP was not in doubt, it was exclusion order. I am presuming that the ABC has some sort of information about Maiwar saying that the Greens will definitely be in second, but without knowing what that information is it's hard to know. Frickeg (talk) 10:13, 5 December 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Diagram[edit]

I have updated the parliament composition diagram to Antony Green's prediction on Saturday, but I will leave it up to someone here to decide when it might be appropriate to include it in the article. Tomiĉo (talk) 23:52, 26 November 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Results tables output[edit]

I'm using the ECQ's XML media feed to generate result tables for each district. You can see it here:

Results of the Queensland state election, 2017.

It is currently only showing primary votes, the data is a day or two old, and I haven't wikilinked some of the new MPs. I will add the two-candidate distributions when they are published by ECQ, and update it every night until counting is complete. --Canley (talk) 03:21, 30 November 2017 (UTC)[reply]

There are also eight independent candidates who ran in 2015 as well, so I will link them to calculate the swing. --Canley (talk) 03:35, 30 November 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Is there any reason why the results section is using ABC predictions, rather than ECQ calls? What makes ABC predictions more important than other media?Dacium (talk) 21:17, 1 December 2017 (UTC)[reply]

The ECQ doesn't call these things for yonks, even the safest seats. There are seats with huge primary vote majorities (e.g. Traeger) that they still haven't declared, because declaration is a formal process that takes time to organise; I believe, if we were limiting ourselves to formal declarations, the results would be 4 Labor and 0 for anyone else. It is of no use to our readers to limit ourselves to formal declarations when we have multiple reliable sources giving a much fuller picture of the results. Generally we've been pretty cautious here, and if any one of the main sources (ABC, Poll Bludger, Kevin Bonham) has left it in doubt, we have too. (I would use Fairfax and News Ltd as well, but they don't specify which seats they're keeping in doubt so it's kind of difficult.) Frickeg (talk) 22:16, 1 December 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Greens Position[edit]

It looks increasingly likely that the Greens will pickup Maiwar. Latest from ABC has Maiwar as a Greens gain (and not in the in doubt category). If that eventuates when the count is declared, it would seem to me that the top info box should be updated with the Greens as the fifth party. Thoughts? — Preceding unsigned comment added by Jschoermer (talk • contribs) 04:58, 5 December 2017 (UTC)[reply]

As you say ABC has given Maiwar away but I haven't been able to find any substantiating information (although I believe the preference throw was scheduled for today). If this is confirmed, then yes, the Greens would need to be added to the infobox. Frickeg (talk) 06:15, 5 December 2017 (UTC)[reply]

The deadline for postals was today, so hopefully it will be tomorrow. --Canley (talk) 09:49, 5 December 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Two Candidate Results after Distribution of Preferences[edit]

ECQ has started publishing these [1]—only one at the moment (Algester). --Canley (talk) 02:13, 6 December 2017 (UTC)[reply]

Greens Leader[edit]

Wasn't Amy McMahon the Queensland Greens leader for this election. And if so, shouldn't the info box be updates to reflect that? Fremantle99 (talk to me) 23:43, 3 March 2018 (UTC)[reply]