Canadian federal election results in Central Ontario

Electoral history

Year	Results
2019
2015
2011
2008
2006
2004
2000
1997
1993
1988
1984
1980
1979
1974
1972
1968
1965
1963
1962
1958
1957
1953
1949
1945
1940
1935
1930
1926
1926

Canadian federal elections have provided the following results in Central Ontario.

Regional profile

The region is the central section of Southern Ontario, mainly comprising the rural area around Lake Simcoe. This has traditionally been the most conservative region of Ontario, in sharp contrast to the Greater Toronto Area to the south. It has historically been the backbone of support for the provincial Tories.

The citizens of the region are mostly white, Protestant, and agrarian, with a large number of social conservatives. Some parts of this region are as conservative as rural Alberta. This region was the heartland of the Reform Party and Canadian Alliance in Ontario, with Simcoe Centre electing a Reform MP in 1993—Reform's only victory east of Manitoba, ever. However, due to massive Reform-PC vote-splitting, the Liberals swept the region during the Chrétien era. The Unite the Right movement (accompanied by Chrétien's departure from office) led to the newly united Conservative Party seizing all but four of the region's seats in 2004. In 2006, Liberal support in this region melted; the only Liberal elected in this region was Belinda Stronach, a former Conservative who crossed the floor in 2005. Stronach's seat reverted to the Conservatives in 2008. In 2011, the Conservatives again swept the region, with the NDP's late-campaign surge propelling them to second in all but one riding..

The region was one of the few that resisted the massive Liberal surge in Ontario in 2015, though the Liberals managed to take Stronach's old riding of Newmarket—Aurora on the outer fringe of the Greater Toronto Area, a region that swung heavily to the Liberals in this election. They also managed to take all of Peterborough.

The riding of Peterborough—Kawartha (formerly simply Peterborough) had long been recognized by political scientists as one of the best bellwether ridings in the country.

Votes by party throughout time

  Liberal

  Conservative

  New Democratic

  Green

  People's

  Progressive Conservative (defunct)

  Alliance (defunct)

  Reform (defunct)

2019

Main article: 2019 Canadian federal election

Electoral district	Candidates												Incumbent
	Conservative		Liberal		NDP		Green		PPC		Other
Barrie—Innisfil		John Brassard 23,765 43.8%		Lisa-Marie Wilson 15,879 29.3%		Pekka Reinio 8,880 16.4%		Bonnie North 4,716 8.7%		Stephanie Robinson 1013 1.9%				John Brassard
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte (judicial recount)		Doug Shipley 20,981 39.0%		Brian Kalliecharan 16,805 31.2%		Dan Janssen 7,972 14.8%		Marty Lancaster 7,066 13.1%		David Patterson 969 1.8%				Alex Nuttall
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound		Alex Ruff 26,830 46.1%		Michael Den Tandt 17,485 30.1%		Chris Stephen 6,797 11.7%		Danielle Valiquette 5,114 8.8%		Bill Townsend 1,614 2.8%		Daniel Little (Libert.) 321 0.6%		Larry Miller
Dufferin—Caledon		Kyle Seeback 28,852 42.0%		Michele Fisher 22,645 33.0%		Allison Brown 7,981 11.6%		Stefan Wieson 7,303 10.6%		Chad Ransom 1,516 2.2%		Russ Emo (CHP) 319 0.5%		David Tilson
Durham		Erin O'Toole 30,752 42.1%		Jonathan Jiancroce 23,547 32.2%		Sarah Whalen-Wright 13,323 18.2%		Evan Price 3,950 5.4%		Brenda Virtue 1,442 2.0%				Erin O'Toole
Haliburton— Kawartha Lakes—Brock		Jamie Schmale 32,257 49.1%		Judi Forbes 17,067 26.0%		Barbara Doyle 9,676 14.7%		Elizabeth Fraser 5,515 8.4%		Gene Balfour 1,245 1.9%				Jamie Schmale
Newmarket—Aurora		Lois Brown 23,252 42.61%		Tony Van Bynen 26,488 43.1%		Yvonne Kelly 6,576 10.7%		Walter Bauer 3,551 5.8%		Andrew McCaughtrie 588 1.0%		Others Dorian Baxter (PC) 901 1.5% Laurie Goble (Rhino) 104 0.2%		Kyle Peterson
Northumberland— Peterborough South		Philip Lawrence 27,385 39.7%		Kim Rudd 24,977 36.2%		Mallory MacDonald 9,615 13.9%		Jeff Wheeldon 5,524 8.0%		Frank Vaughan 1,460 2.1%				Kim Rudd
Peterborough—Kawartha		Michael Skinner 24,096 34.9%		Maryam Monsef 27,400 39.2%		Candace Shaw 11,872 17.0%		Andrew MacGregor 4,930 7.0%		Alexander Murphy 890 1.3%		Others Robert M. Bowers (Independent) 180 0.3% Ken Ranney (Stop Climate Change) 172 0.3%		Maryam Monsef
Simcoe—Grey		Terry Dowdall 32,812 43.5%		Lorne Kenney 23,925 31.7%		Ilona Matthews 8,462 11.2%		Sherri Jackson 8,589 11.4%%		Richard Sommer 1,416 1.9%		Tony D'Angelo (VCP) 305 0.4%		Kellie Leitch
Simcoe North		Bruce Stanton 27,241 43.4%		Gerry Hawes 19,310 30.8%		Angelique Belcourt 8,850 14.1%		Valerie Powell 5,882 9.4%		Stephen Makk 1,154 1.8%		Chris Brown (CHP) 341 0.5%		Bruce Stanton
York—Simcoe		Scot Davidson 24,918 46.3%		Cynthia Wesley-Esquimaux 14,407 26.8%		Jessa McLean 7,620 14.2%		Jonathan Arnold 4,650 8.6%		Michael Lotter 875 1.6%		Keith Komar (Libert.) 1,311 2.4%		Scot Davidson

2015

Main article: 2015 Canadian federal election

Electoral district	Candidates										Incumbent
	Conservative		NDP		Liberal		Green		Other
Barrie—Innisfil		John Brassard 22,901 46.41%		Myrna Clark 5,812 11.78%		Colin Wilson 18,308 37.11%		Bonnie North 1,991 4.04%		Gary Nail (CHP) 199 0.40%	Vacant Barrie
										Jeff Sakula (CAP) 130 0.26%
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte (judicial recount)		Alex Nuttall 21,091 41.74%		Ellen White 5,202 10.29%		Brian Tamblyn 21,005 41.57%		Marty Lancaster 2,648 5.24%		Ram Faerber (Ind.) 188 0.37%	New district
										Darren Roskam (Libert.) 401 0.79%
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound		Larry Miller 26,297 46.68%		David McLaren 6,270 11.13%		Kimberley Love 21,879 38.84%		Chris Albinati 1,887 3.35%				Larry Miller
Dufferin—Caledon		David Allan Tilson 27,977 46.28%		Rehya Yazbek 4,398 7.28%		Ed Crewson 23,643 39.11%		Nancy Urekar 4,433 7.33%				David Tilson
Durham		Erin O'Toole 28,967 45.13%		Derek Spence 10,289 16.03%		Corinna Traill 22,949 35.75%		Stacey Leadbetter 1,616 2.52%		Andrew Moriarity (CHP) 364 0.57%		Erin O'Toole
Haliburton— Kawartha Lakes—Brock		Jamie Schmale 27,718 44.83%		Mike Perry 12,012 19.43%		David Marquis 19,634 31.75%		Bill MacCallum 2,470 3.99%				Barry Devolin†
Newmarket—Aurora		Lois Brown 24,057 42.61%		Yvonne Kelly 4,806 8.51%		Kyle Peterson 25,508 45.18%		Vanessa Long 1,331 2.36%		Dorian Baxter (PC) 762 1.35%		Lois Brown
Northumberland—Peterborough South		Adam Moulton 25,165 39.56%		Russ Christianson 9,411 14.80%		Kim Rudd 27,043 42.51%		Patricia Sinnott 1,990 3.13%				Rick Norlock† Northumberland—Quinte West
Peterborough—Kawartha		Michael Skinner 23,335 35.07%		Dave Nickle 12,437 18.69%		Maryam Monsef 29,159 43.82%		Doug Mason 1,480 2.22%		Toban Leckie (SD) 131 0.20%	Vacant Peterborough
Simcoe—Grey		Kellie Leitch 30,612 46.56%		David Matthews 6,332 9.63%		Mike MacEachern 25,352 38.56%		JoAnne Fleming 2,923 4.45%		Len Noordegraaf (CHP) 528 0.80%		Kellie Leitch
Simcoe North		Bruce Stanton 24,836 43.52%		Richard Banigan 6,037 10.58%		Liz Riley 22,718 39.81%		Peter Stubbins 2,543 4.46%		Jacob Kearey-Moreland (NA) 618 1.08%		Bruce Stanton
										Scott Whittaker (CHP) 319 0.56%
York—Simcoe		Peter Van Loan 24,058 50.25%		Sylvia Gerl 4,255 8.89%		Shaun Tanaka 18,083 37.77%		Mark Viitala 1,483 3.10%				Peter Van Loan

2011

Main article: 2011 Canadian federal election

Electoral district	Candidates										Incumbent
	Conservative		Liberal		NDP		Green		Other
Barrie		Patrick Brown 32,121 56.70%		Colin Wilson 9,113 16.09%		Myrna Clark 11,842 20.90%		Erich Jacoby-Hawkins 3,266 5.77%		Christine Nugent (M-L) 82 0.14%		Patrick Brown
										Darren Roskam (Libert.) 150 0.26%
										Jeff Sakula (CAP) 77 0.14%
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound		Larry Miller 28,744 56.30%		Kimberley Love 8,203 16.07%		Karen Gventer 9,008 17.64%		Emma Hogbin 5,099 9.99%				Larry Miller
Dufferin—Caledon		David Tilson 28,647 59.01%		Bill Prout 6,361 13.10%		Leslie Parsons 6,409 13.20%		Ard Van Leeuwen 7,132 14.69%				David Tilson
Durham		Bev Oda 31,737 54.55%		Grant Humes 10,387 17.85%		Tammy Schoep 12,277 21.10%		Stephen Leahy 3,134 5.39%		Blaize Barnicoat (Libert.) 187 0.32%		Bev Oda
										Andrew Moriarity (CHP) 462 0.79%
Haliburton— Kawartha Lakes—Brock		Barry Devolin 35,192 60.03%		Laura Redman 7,539 12.86%		Lyn Edwards 12,934 22.06%		Susanne Lauten 2,963 5.05%				Barry Devolin
Newmarket—Aurora		Lois Brown 31,600 54.29%		Kyle Peterson 13,908 23.90%		Kassandra Bidarian 8,886 15.27%		Vanessa Long 2,628 4.52%		Dorian Baxter (PC) 998 1.71%		Lois Brown
										Yvonne Mackie (AAEVP) 182 0.31%
Northumberland— Quinte West		Rick Norlock 32,853 53.83%		Kim Rudd 12,822 21.01%		Russ Christianson 12,626 20.69%		Ralph Torrie 2,733 4.48%				Rick Norlock
Peterborough		Dean Del Mastro 29,393 49.67%		Betsy McGregor 12,664 21.40%		Dave Nickle 14,723 24.88%		Michael Bell 2,105 3.56%		Michael Bates (CAP) 104 0.18%		Dean Del Mastro
										Gordon Scott (Ind.) 189 0.32%
Simcoe—Grey		Kellie Leitch 31,784 49.37%		Alex Smardenka 8,207 12.75%		Katy Austin 11,185 17.38%		Jace Metheral 3,482 5.41%		Gord Cochrane (CAP) 244 0.38%		Helena Guergis
										Helena Guergis (Ind.) 8,714 13.54%
										Peter Vander Zaag (CHP) 757 1.18%
Simcoe North		Bruce Stanton 31,581 54.45%		Steve Clarke 11,090 19.12%		Richard Banigan 11,515 19.85%		Valerie Powell 3,489 6.02%		Adrian Kooger (CHP) 322 0.56%		Bruce Stanton
York—Simcoe		Peter Van Loan 33,614 63.58%		Cynthia Wesley-Esquimaux 5,702 10.79%		Sylvia Gerl 10,190 19.28%		John Dewar 2,851 5.39%		Vicki Gunn (CHP) 352 0.67%		Peter Van Loan
										Paul Pisani (United) 157 0.30%

2008

Main article: 2008 Canadian federal election

Electoral district	Candidates												Incumbent
	Conservative		Liberal		NDP		Green		Christian Heritage		Other
Barrie		Patrick Brown 27,927 52.37%		Rick Jones 12,732 23.88%		Myrna Clark 6,403 12.01%		Erich Jacoby-Hawkins 5,921 11.10%				Paolo Fabrizio (Libert.) 260 0.49%		Patrick Brown
												Christine Anne Nugent (M-L) 84 0.16%
Bruce— Grey— Owen Sound		Larry Miller 22,975 47.66%		Thom Noble 6,892 14.30%		Jill McIllwraith 4,640 9.63%		Dick Hibma 13,095 27.17%		Joel Kidd 599 1.24%				Larry Miller
Dufferin—Caledon		David Tilson 23,363 53.21%		Rebecca Finch 8,495 19.35%		Jason Bissett 4,385 9.99%		Ard Van Leeuwen 7,377 16.80%				Dean Woods (CAP) 284 0.65%		David Tilson
Durham		Bev Oda 28,551 54.05%		Bryan Ransom 12,167 23.03%		Andrew McKeever 5,485 10.38%		Stephen Leahy 6,041 11.44%		Henry Zekveld 577 1.09%				Bev Oda
Haliburton— Kawartha Lakes— Brock		Barry Devolin 30,391 55.95%		Marlene White 11,093 20.42%		Stephen Yardy 7,952 14.64%		Michael Bell 4,505 8.29%		Dave Switzer 374 0.69%				Barry Devolin
Newmarket—Aurora		Lois Brown 24,873 46.70%		Tim Jones 18,250 34.27%		Mike Seaward 4,548 8.54%		Glenn Hubbers 4,381 8.23%		Ray Luff 205 0.38%		Dorian Baxter (PC) 1,004 1.89%		Belinda Stronach†
Northumberland— Quinte West		Rick Norlock 27,615 48.71%		Paul Macklin 16,209 28.59%		Russ Christianson 8,230 14.52%		Ralph Torrie 4,633 8.17%						Rick Norlock
Peterborough		Dean Del Mastro 27,630 47.40%		Betsy McGregor 18,417 31.60%		Steve Sharpe 8,115 13.92%		Emily Berrigan 4,029 6.91%				Elaine Couto (M-L) 98 0.17%		Dean Del Mastro
Simcoe—Grey		Helena Guergis 30,897 55.05%		Andrea Matrosovs 12,099 21.56%		Katy Austin 6,288 11.20%		Peter Ellis 5,685 10.13%		Peter Vander Zaag 1,018 1.81%		Caley McKibbin (Libert.) 143 0.25%		Helena Guergis
Simcoe North		Bruce Stanton 26,328 49.66%		Steve Clarke 14,670 27.67%		Richard Banigan 6,202 11.70%		Valerie Powell 5,821 10.98%						Bruce Stanton
York—Simcoe		Peter Van Loan 27,412 56.70%		Judith Moses 9,044 18.71%		Sylvia Gerl 5,882 12.17%		John Dewar 4,887 10.11%		Vicki Gunn 444 0.92%		Paul Pisani (PC) 676 1.40%		Peter Van Loan

2006

Main article: 2006 Canadian federal election

Electoral district	Candidates										Incumbent
	Liberal		Conservative		NDP		Green		Other
Barrie		Aileen Carroll 22,456 39.18%		Patrick Brown 23,999 41.88%		Peter Bursztyn 6,978 12.18%		Erich Jacoby-Hawkins 3,875 6.76%				Aileen Carroll
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound		Verona Jackson 14,378 27.56%		Larry Miller 25,133 48.18%		Jill McIllwraith 5,918 11.34%		Shane Jolley 6,735 12.91%				Larry Miller
Dufferin—Caledon		Garry Moore 14,777 29.97%		David Tilson 23,641 47.94%		Chris Marquis 5,983 12.13%		Ted Alexander 4,912 9.96%				David Tilson
Durham		Doug Moffatt 17,290 30.01%		Bev Oda 27,087 47.02%		Bruce Rogers 9,946 17.26%		Virginia Ervin 2,676 4.64%		Henry Zekveld (CHP) 612 1.06%		Bev Oda
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock		Greg Walling 17,266 28.75%		Barry Devolin 29,427 49.00%		Anne MacDermid 10,340 17.22%		Andy Harjula 3,017 5.02%				Barry Devolin
Newmarket—Aurora		Belinda Stronach 27,176 46.21%		Lois Brown 22,376 38.05%		Ed Chudak 5,639 9.59%		Glenn Hubbers 2,813 4.78%		Dorian Baxter (PC) 729 1.24%		Belinda Stronach
										Peter Maloney (CAP) 79 0.13%
Northumberland—Quinte West		Paul Macklin 22,566 36.00%		Rick Norlock 25,833 41.21%		Russ Christianson 11,334 18.08%		Patricia Lawson 2,946 4.70%				Paul Macklin
Peterborough		Diane Lloyd 20,532 32.37%		Dean Del Mastro 22,774 35.90%		Linda Slavin 16,286 25.68%		Brent Wood 3,205 5.05%		Bob Bowers (Ind.) 179 0.28%		Peter Adams†
										Aiden Wiechula (Mar.) 455 0.72%
Simcoe—Grey		Elizabeth Kirley 18,689 30.86%		Helena Guergis 30,135 49.76%		Katy Austin 6,784 11.20%		Peter Ellis 3,372 5.57%		Peter Vander Zaag (CHP) 1,585 2.62%		Helena Guergis
Simcoe North		Karen Graham 22,078 38.37%		Bruce Stanton 23,266 40.43%		Jen Hill 8,132 14.13%		Sandy Agnew 3,451 6.00%		Adrian Peter Kooger (CHP) 617 1.07%		Paul DeVillers†
York—Simcoe		Kate Wilson 16,456 30.70%		Peter Van Loan 25,685 47.93%		Sylvia Gerl 7,139 13.32%		John Dewar 3,719 6.94%		Vicki Gunn (CHP) 595 1.11%		Peter Van Loan

2004

Main article: 2004 Canadian federal election

Electoral district	Candidates												Incumbent
	Liberal		Conservative		NDP		Green		Christian Heritage		Other
Barrie		Aileen Carroll 21,233 42.66%		Patrick Brown 19,938 40.06%		Peter Bursztyn 5,312 10.67%		Erich Jacoby-Hawkins 3,288 6.61%						Aileen Carroll
Clarington—Scugog—Uxbridge		Tim Lang 19,548 38.27%		Bev Oda 20,813 40.74%		Bruce Rogers 7,721 15.11%		Virginia Ervin 2,085 4.08%		Durk Bruinsma 915 1.79%				Alex Shepherd
Dufferin—Caledon		Murray Calder 17,557 39.00%		David Tilson 19,270 42.81%		Rita Landry 3,798 8.44%		Ted Alexander 3,947 8.77%		Ursula Ellis 443 0.98%				Murray Calder
Grey—Bruce—Owen Sound		Ovid Jackson 17,824 35.78%		Larry Miller 22,411 44.99%		Sebastian Ostertag 6,516 13.08%		Alex Drossos 2,076 4.17%		Steven J. Taylor 982 1.97%				Ovid Jackson
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock		John O'Reilly 19,294 34.51%		Barry Devolin 24,731 44.23%		Gil J. McElroy 8,427 15.07%		Tim Holland 2,637 4.72%		Peter Vogel 493 0.88%		Charles Olito (Ind.) 330 0.59%		John O'Reilly
Newmarket—Aurora		Martha Hall Findlay 21,129 41.08%		Belinda Stronach 21,818 42.42%		Ed Chudak 5,111 9.94%		Daryl Wyatt 2,298 4.47%				Dorian Baxter (PC) 1,079 2.10%		new district
Northumberland—Quinte West		Paul Macklin 22,989 39.85%		Doug Galt 22,676 39.31%		Russ Christianson 9,007 15.61%		Steve Haylestrom 3,016 5.23%						Paul Macklin
Peterborough		Peter Adams 25,099 43.55%		James Jackson 18,393 31.92%		Linda Slavin 10,957 19.01%		Brent Wood 3,182 5.52%						Peter Adams
Simcoe—Grey		Paul Bonwick 22,396 40.44%		Helena Guergis 22,496 40.62%		Colin Mackinnon 5,532 9.99%		Peter Ellis 2,668 4.82%		Peter Vander Zaag 2,285 4.13%				Paul Bonwick
Simcoe North		Paul DeVillers 23,664 43.36%		Peter Stock 20,570 37.69%		Jen Hill 6,162 11.29%		Mary Lou Kirby 3,486 6.39%		Adrian Kooger 544 1.00%		Ian Woods (CAP) 145 0.27%		Paul DeVillers
York—Simcoe		Kate Wilson 16,763 35.47%		Peter Van Loan 21,343 45.17%		Sylvia Gerl 5,314 11.25%		Bob Burrows 2,576 5.45%		Vicki Gunn 588 1.24%		Stephen Sircelj (PC) 670 1.42%		Karen Kraft Sloan

Key map	Barrie Durham Dufferin-Caledon Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Newmarket-Aurora Northumberland-Qunte West Peterborough Simcoe-Grey Simcoe North York-Simcoe
Conservative Party of Canada	Green Party of Canada
Liberal Party of Canada	New Democratic Party

2000

Main article: 2000 Canadian federal election

Electoral district	Candidates										Incumbent
	Liberal		Canadian Alliance		NDP		PC		Other
Barrie—Simcoe—Bradford		Aileen Carroll 26,309 48.27%		Rob Hamilton 17,600 32.29%		Keith Lindsay 2,385 4.38%		Jane MacLaren 7,588 13.92%		Brian K. White (NA) 234 0.43% Ian Woods (CAP) 387 0.71%		Aileen Carroll
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound		Ovid L. Jackson 19,817 44.22%		Murray Peer 15,960 35.61%		Karen Gventer 2,166 4.83%		Allen Wilford 6,872 15.33%				Ovid Jackson
Dufferin—Peel—Wellington—Grey		Murray Calder 21,678 45.57%		Don Crawford 15,028 31.59%		Mitchel Healey 1,473 3.10%		Richard Majkot 7,926 16.66%		Robert Strang (Green) 1,464 3.08%		Murray Calder
Durham		Alex Shepherd 20,602 45.20%		Gerry Skipwith 13,743 30.15%		Ken Ranney 2,545 5.58%		Sam Cureatz 8,367 18.36%		Durk Bruinsma (NA) 326 0.72%		Alex Shepherd
Haliburton—Victoria—Brock		John O'Reilly 16,710 33.95%		Pat Dunn 15,591 31.68%		Rick Denyer 2,409 4.89%		Laurie Scott 14,508 29.48%				John O'Reilly
Northumberland		Paul Harold Macklin 20,109 45.90%		Rick Norlock 11,410 26.05%		Ben Burd 2,141 4.89%		Ralph James Zarboni 8,768 20.02%		Tom Lawson (Green) 1,102 2.52% Gail Thompson (CAP) 276 0.63%		Christine Stewart
Peterborough		Peter Adams 25,310 48.41%		Eric John Allan Mann 14,924 28.54%		Herb Wiseman 3,967 7.59%		Darrin Langen 7,034 13.45%		Bob Bowers (Ind.) 147 0.28% Tim Holland (Green) 903 1.73%		Peter Adams
Simcoe—Grey		Paul Bonwick 22,224 44.77%		George Demery 16,113 32.46%		Michael Kennedy 1,646 3.32%		Bill Dunkley 8,655 17.44%		Victor Carvalho (NA) 246 0.50% James Wilson McGillivray (CAP) 751 1.51%		Paul Bonwick
Simcoe North		Paul DeVillers 24,510 50.76%		Peter Stock 14,283 29.58%		Ann Billings 2,272 4.71%		Lucy Stewart 6,914 14.32%		Adrian P. Kooger (NA) 305 0.63%		Paul Devillers
York North		Karen Kraft Sloan 22,665 46.50%		Bob Yaciuk 11,985 24.59%		Ian Scott 1,696 3.48%		Joe Wamback 11,890 24.39%		Ian Knight (NA) 509 1.04%		Karen Kraft Sloan

References

• Frank B. Feigert (1989). Canada Votes, 1935-1988. Duke University Press. ISBN 9780822308942.