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Origins of COVID-19: Current consensus

  1. There is no consensus on whether the lab leak theory is a "conspiracy theory" or a "minority scientific viewpoint". (RfC, February 2021)
  2. There is consensus against defining "disease and pandemic origins" (broadly speaking) as a form of biomedical information for the purpose of WP:MEDRS. However, information that already fits into biomedical information remains classified as such, even if it relates to disease and pandemic origins (e.g. genome sequences, symptom descriptions, phylogenetic trees). (RfC, May 2021)
  3. In multiple prior non-RFC discussions about manuscripts authored by Rossana Segreto and/or Yuri Deigin, editors have found the sources to be unreliable. Specifically, editors were not convinced by the credentials of the authors, and concerns were raised with the editorial oversight of the BioEssays "Problems & Paradigms" series. (Jan 2021, Jan 2021, Jan 2021, Feb 2021, June 2021, ...)
  4. The consensus of scientists is that SARS-CoV-2 is likely of zoonotic origin. (January 2021, May 2021, May 2021, May 2021, June 2021, June 2021, WP:NOLABLEAK (frequently cited in discussions))
  5. The March 2021 WHO report on the origins of SARS-CoV-2 should be referred to as the "WHO-convened report" or "WHO-convened study" on first usage in article prose, and may be abbreviated as "WHO report" or "WHO study" thereafter. (RfC, June 2021)
  6. The "manufactured bioweapon" idea should be described as a "conspiracy theory" in wiki-voice. (January 2021, February 2021, May 2021, May 2021, June 2021, June 2021, June 2021, June 2021, July 2021, July 2021, July 2021, August 2021)
  7. The scientific consensus (and the Frutos et al. sources ([1][2]) which support it), which dismisses the lab leak, should not be described as "based in part on Shi [Zhengli]'s emailed answers." (RfC, December 2021)
  8. The American FBI and Department of Energy finding that a lab leak was likely should not be mentioned in the lead of COVID-19 lab leak theory, because it is WP:UNDUE. (RFC, October 2023)
  9. The article COVID-19 lab leak theory may not go through the requested moves process between 4 March 2024 and 3 March 2025. (RM, March 2024)

Last updated (diff) on 15 March 2024 by Novem Linguae (t · c)

Lab leak theory sources[edit]

List of good sources with good coverage to help expand. Not necessarily for inclusion but just for consideration. Preferably not articles that just discuss a single quote/press conference. The long-style reporting would be even better. Feel free to edit directly to add to the list. ProcrastinatingReader (talk) 17:39, 18 July 2021 (UTC)[reply]

Last updated by Julian Brown (talk) 23:43, 12 November 2023 (UTC)[reply]

[edit]  ·
Scholarship
For the relevant sourcing guideline, see WP:SCHOLARSHIP. For a database curated by the NCBI, see LitCoVID
[edit]  ·
Journalism
For the relevant sourcing guideline, see WP:NEWSORG.
[edit]  ·
Opinion-based editorials written by scientists/scholars
For the relevant sourcing guideline, see WP:RSOPINION.
[edit]  ·
Opinion-based editorials written by journalists
For the relevant sourcing guideline, see WP:RSOPINION.
[edit]  ·
Government and policy
Keep in mind, these are primary sources and thus should be used with caution!

References

risk assessment[edit]

A recent UNSW paper [5] gives the lab leak theory a higher propability than the Zoonosis. But this article is unserviceable, so I drop it here. Alexpl (talk) 15:06, 15 March 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Proposed merge of Zoonotic origins of COVID-19 into Origin of COVID-19[edit]

It is not clear whether this article was created as a proper WP:CFORK of that article or whether it can only function as a WP:POVFORK. Depending on the outcome of that determination, either a merge back to the main article or a proper summary of this article at the main article ought to be completed. jps (talk) 16:05, 27 November 2023 (UTC)[reply]

To avoid duplication, please concentrate discussion at Talk:COVID-19_zoonosis_theories#CFORK_or_POVFORK? Sennalen (talk) 19:05, 27 November 2023 (UTC)[reply]
Restoring archived discussion as it is clear this discussion was never concluded. TarnishedPathtalk 11:53, 24 March 2024 (UTC)[reply]
  • Pinging @ජපස, @Sennalen, @DFlhb, @MisterWizzy, @Aquillion, @Bon courage, @Generalrelative and @Novem Linguae as editors who were all involved in the previous merge discussion at Talk:Zoonotic origins of COVID-19#CFORK or POVFORK? which was not concluded. TarnishedPathtalk 11:57, 24 March 2024 (UTC)[reply]
    I am now completely confused as to what is meant to happen next. Probably nothing, as anything will provoke argument about what's meant to happen next. Bon courage (talk) 12:00, 24 March 2024 (UTC)[reply]
    Merge discussions can perhaps take longer than the time allowed in AfD. I'm in the process of pinging everyone that was in that discussion also. Let's see where the discussion goes. TarnishedPathtalk 12:02, 24 March 2024 (UTC)[reply]
  • Pinging @AndyTheGrump, @HandThatFeeds, @Graham Beards, @Tewdar, @Jaredroach, @DanielRigal, @Thinker78, @SchroCat, @XMcan, @Palpable and @Sirfurboy as edtiors that were involved in the discussion at Wikipedia:Articles for deletion/Zoonotic origins of COVID-19. Apologies if I've doubled up on anyone or missed anyone. — Preceding unsigned comment added by TarnishedPath (talk • contribs) 13:09, 24 March 2024 (UTC)[reply]
  • The recent AFD reached no consensus. That doesn't actually bar us from a merge discussion - a no-consensus outcome on something important ideally means we keep working at it until we can reach a consensus of some sort in one way or another, and by my reading that was very close to a successful merge anyway - but we should think about the objections and ideas raised there, on both sides, and try to figure out what to do. One thing that occurs to me is that this article probably shouldn't link to that one per WP:ONEWAY. Another thing that occurs to me is that people may have been influenced by the sheert size of Zoonotic origins of COVID-19, which I'm not sure the sources actually justify. It might be worth going over that article and trimming more weakly-sourced things, or things that require WP:MEDRS sourcing and don't have it. Removing opinions cited to non-experts would also help get a clearer view of what's actually salvageable there, which might help convince people that a merge is feasible. It's also worth pointing out that the closer said that arguments here have not been based on policy which suggests, to me, that they felt that both the "merge" and "keep" arguments were not policy-based (something I find a bit surprising); this suggests to me that a merge discussion with stronger arguments would probably pass because the arguments against merging weren't policy-compliant. --Aquillion (talk) 17:10, 24 March 2024 (UTC)[reply]
    Does anyone doubt that this is really a content dispute? I assumed that's what the comment about arguments not based on policy referred to. - Palpable (talk) 16:07, 26 March 2024 (UTC)[reply]
  • Another option is to merge Zoonotic origins of COVID-19 into Zoonosis. It is worthwhile taking a look at all Wikipedia articles that contain the word "Zoonosis" to get a sense of how this issue is handled for other diseases. For example, there is no article for "Zoonotic origins of Flu". There is, however, an article Feline zoonosis. Therefore we could also consider creating an article Bat zoonosis, and seeding it with the material from Zoonotic origins of COVID-19. Taking another tack, we can examine what Wikipedia articles are of the form, "Origin of ____". There are not very many, none about diseases (other than the one in question), most about human populations. So we may not want to feed the beast by adding to Origin of COVID-19. See also my comments at Wikipedia:Articles for deletion/Zoonotic origins of COVID-19, exploring parallels with the Origin of Life article. Jaredroach (talk) 20:12, 25 March 2024 (UTC)[reply]
  • Oppose merge as proposed. The merge should be reversed. Zoonotic origins is the primary article here that explains the origin of the virus, and the Origin of Covid article is about investigations, which is background history, or perhaps a related sub article. But Zoonotic origins answers the question "where did COVID come from". Sirfurboy🏄 (talk) 10:58, 14 April 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Rename page to Origin of SARS-CoV-2 ?[edit]

The page title has a category error. This is an article about the virus' origin (as it says in the first sentence), not the "origin" of the disease. Everybody knows the disease is originated by infection with the virus. Bon courage (talk) 06:05, 31 March 2024 (UTC)[reply]

@Bon courage, I agree with your rational. TarnishedPathtalk 10:13, 20 May 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Biased Article[edit]

The article in its current form displays a clear bias.

The introduction paragraph is formulated to imply the zoonotic origin is scientific evidence and other hypotheses a product of conspiracy or fiction.

The zoonotic origin is a deduction based on the article of Andersen et al., 2020. It contains deductions based on comparative analyses, but they do not represent factual evidence. Fact: "We prove that ...", Comparative Analysis: "Based on previous data we assess it is unlikely that ..."

That article should be put on the bigger picture that is recently arising, on how a segment of the research community (represented Dr. Daszak) tried to cover up the role of Wuhan's lab coronavirus research and rush to declare that China is not guilty. Those are not conspiracies anymore https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-01305-z and even Nature accepts it.

In light of the recent development, it seems foolish to still "blindly" believe in the integrity of the virus-research scientific community, at a time when it is crystal clear (echoed by Nature, US Senate, etc.) that the scientific community had been compromised. 2A02:810D:B5BF:F0AD:3CE9:EAD1:8168:834A (talk) 09:39, 8 June 2024 (UTC)[reply]

There is - at present - no actual evidence for the lab leak theory. One guy not disclosing a tangential collaboration with a lab does not give credence to your conspiracy theory.
I don't believe in the integrity of any specific institution, but I believe in evidence. There is ample evidence of zoonotic origin, and 0 evidence of lab leak. LMFcan (talk) 11:11, 8 June 2024 (UTC)[reply]
What do you mean by ample evidence? Because there is no evidence that the origin is zoonotic, there are only studies that deduce the zoonotic evidence to be "highly likely" based on a comparative assessment of the genome. The same studies assess a lab leak to be "highly unlikely". Sorry for how you understand science and facts, but this is not evidence. See the definition of the word "fact" for a start Fact.
Regarding your assessment that my opinion is a conspiracy, this is exactly the root of this problem. In the beginning of the pandemic, conspiracists used the situation to ignite unsourced debates. The more rational fragment of the society, call them science believers, quickly jumped in to "calm" down the population and avoid that the masses are influenced by conspiracies.
However, purely because conspiracists believe in a theory does not make it automatically wrong or laughable. The situation has changed a lot since the early days when a few scientists, apparently with conflicts of interests, rushed to declare prematurely that COVID has a zoonotic origin, without waiting for conclusive evidence such as the discovery of a matching genome in an intermediate host. Such evidence was never discovered, despite thousands of tests on animals in the Wuhan region and beyond.
I am not a virologist and will not argue with the technical details. However, it is my right to demand that Wikipedia is impartial and that it does not turn into a stronghold of blind "science-believing" editors, who reject any alternate theory as simply conspiracy because they are too proud to accept they might have been wrong in prematurely believing in what-seems-to-be a compromised nucleus of scientific researchers with conflicts of interests in the cause of the pandemic. Science is not a static concept of math equations, but also a more general vision of seeking the truth, especially in such cases when the "truth" dynamically evolves considering the incoming flow of new pieces of the puzzle.2A02:810D:B5BF:F0AD:3CE9:EAD1:8168:834A (talk) 18:33, 8 June 2024 (UTC)[reply]
You say, "The situation has changed a lot since the early days when a few scientists, apparently with conflicts of interests, rushed to declare prematurely that COVID has a zoonotic origin, without waiting for conclusive evidence such as the discovery of a matching genome in an intermediate host."
I think, "The situation has changed a lot since the early days when a few politicians, apparently with conflicts of interests, rushed to declare prematurely that COVID has a lab leak origin, without waiting for conclusive evidence such as the discovery of a matching genome in any lab."
Same logic, different result, no? WhatamIdoing (talk) 19:56, 8 June 2024 (UTC)[reply]
Unrelated comment first: I appreciate the creativity of your answer.
Coming to the point: I do not support the "few politicians", however, it seems most editors believe in the "few scientists" as if they were divine creatures of scientific puritanism. Recent evidence suggests their work is not exclusively driven by scientific rigor, to put it mildly.
Science should give an ultimate answer, however, please notice that the scientific community does not have an absolute consensus on the matter:
https://gcrinstitute.org/papers/069_covid-origin.pdf
In the survey above published in February 2024, among 168 leading global experts in virology 79% believe in a zoonotic origin, and 21% believe in an accident-related origin. That is a staggering amount of disagreement to call the situation a consensus, especially since it takes a lot of courage to question the zoonotic origin without being declared a conspiracist, crazy right-wing, etc., and risking a character assassination (we even have an example above when I was characterized as a "conspiracist" by the previous editor, only because I dared to question the balance of this article).
Perhaps it is not too late that Wikipedia fixes this page, by balancing this article with the lines "The community of scientists is divided into two fronts, the majority supporting a zoonotic origin, and a minority supporting an accident leak.", and removing the absurd part implying that individuals questioning the zoonotic origin are conspiracists, etc. The current phrasing is insulting, to say the least, to a rational being. 2A02:810D:B5BF:F0AD:3CE9:EAD1:8168:834A (talk) 21:09, 8 June 2024 (UTC)[reply]
I found https://www.science.org/content/article/virologists-and-epidemiologists-back-natural-origin-covid-19-survey-suggests (a description of that survey's flaws) informative. My favorite line was this:
“At least 78% of experts are very badly informed (not aware of one key document)...33% of experts are either lying or easily confused [because they claimed to be familiar with a paper that never existed]. Basically, these experts are no better than the Delphic Pythia, hallucinations included.”
And that's from someone who believes that SARS-CoV-2 originated in a lab. WhatamIdoing (talk) 21:31, 8 June 2024 (UTC)[reply]
I assume you read the Science article's comment, which assesses that:
"That hardly means respondents believe the matter is settled, however. One in five researchers gave a probability of 50% or more to a scenario other than a natural zoonosis."
The other line you are reporting should be taken in the right context, which is the opposite of what you are implying:
The article refers to a comment that "78% of experts" were uninformed of a proposal "known as DEFUSE, which was submitted to the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) in 2018 by the nonprofit EcoHealth Allianceand partnering labs in the United States and at the Wuhan Institute of Virology".
The person tweeting suggests the majority supporting the zoonotic origin is not well-informed, and follows a "herd mentality" zoonotic belief.
This survey, including the Science article you cited, further iterates that the reality is far away from the clear zoonotic consensus among the scientific community, contrary to what this Wikipedia article tries to indicate. 2A02:810D:B5BF:F0AD:3CE9:EAD1:8168:834A (talk) 22:11, 8 June 2024 (UTC)[reply]
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