File:Frank climate model, 2018.svg

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Description
English: Scenarios in a mathematical model by en:Adam Frank et al., 2018, which describes climate change due to GHG emissions by an advanced energy-intensive civilization.[1] From left to right, top to bottom:
  1. Die-off: The world population reaches a peak and subsequently declines slowly until an equilibrium is attained. Population can decline by up to 90% after peaking; according to Frank, such a civilization "might well just descend into chaos."
  2. Sustainability: Both the world population and average surface temperature rise and then level off. This scenario shows that civilizations can be stable in the long term.
  3. Collapse without resource change: A civilization makes no attempt to switch to less GHG-intensive energy and collapses due to runaway climate change, possibly going extinct.
  4. Collapse with resource change: A civilization transitions to less GHG-neutral energy, but collapses anyway due to triggering a tipping point in the climate system.
Date
Source Own work; adapted from a figure in Billings, 2018.[1]
Author LaundryPizza03

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  1. ↑ a b Billings, Lee (13 June 2018). "Alien Anthropocene: How Would Other Worlds Battle Climate Change?". Scientific American 28 (3s). Springer Nature.

Captions

Possible trajectories of anthropogenic climate change in a model by Frank et al., 2018, which describes climate change caused by energy-intensive civilizations

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Fermi paradox

inception

3 January 2021

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