2011 New South Wales state election

2011 New South Wales state election

26 March 2011
All 93 seats in the New South Wales Legislative Assembly and 21 (of the 42) seats in the New South Wales Legislative Council 47 Assembly seats were needed for a majority
Opinion polls
First party Second party Third party   Leader Barry O'Farrell Kristina Keneally No leader Party Liberal/National coalition Labor Greens Leader since 4 April 2007 4 December 2009 Leader's seat Ku-ring-gai Heffron Last election 35 seats 52 seats 0 seats Seats before 37 50 0 Seats won 69 20 1 Seat change 32 30 1 Popular vote 2,124,321 1,061,352 427,144 Percentage 51.15% 25.55% 10.29% Swing 14.16 13.43 1.33 TPP 64.22% 35.78% TPP swing 16.48 16.48
Two-candidate-preferred margin by electorate
Premier before election Kristina Keneally Labor Elected Premier Barry O'Farrell Liberal/National coalition

The 2011 New South Wales state election held on Saturday, 26 March 2011. The 16-year-incumbent Labor Party government led by Premier Kristina Keneally was defeated in a landslide by the Liberal–National Coalition opposition led by Barry O'Farrell.

Labor suffered a two-party swing of 16.4 points, the largest against a sitting government at any level in Australia since World War II. From 48 seats at dissolution, Labor was knocked down to 20 seats—the worst defeat of a sitting government in New South Wales history, and one of the worst of a state government in Australia since federation. The Coalition picked up a 34-seat swing to win a strong majority, with 69 seats–the largest majority government, in terms of percentage of seats controlled, in NSW history. It is only the third time since 1941 that a NSW Labor government has been defeated. It was also notable in that many of Labor's safest seats, such as the seat of Newcastle, were won by the Liberal Party for the first time in history. This election also saw the previous record for largest percentage of seats defeated by the Coalition winning 74.2 percent of seats (69 out of 93 seats) with the previous record set by Neville Wran's Labor Party back in there 1981 election landslide winning (69 out of 99 seats) for 69.7 percent of seats.

New South Wales has compulsory voting, with an optional preferential ballot in single-member seats for the lower house and single transferable vote with optional preferential above-the-line voting in the proportionally represented upper house. The election was conducted by the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC).

Background

See also: Post-election pendulum for the New South Wales state election, 2007

New South Wales electorates by party before the election

New South Wales electorates by party after the election

The centre-left Labor Party, led by Premier Kristina Keneally, and the centre-right Liberal Party, led by Leader of the Opposition Barry O'Farrell, were the two main parties in New South Wales. In the 2007 state election, of 93 seats total, Labor won 52 seats, the Liberals won 22 seats and the Nationals, led by Andrew Stoner, who are in coalition with the Liberals, won 13 seats. Six seats were retained by independents. Smaller parties which hold no seats in the lower house but achieved significant votes in 2007 include The Greens and the Christian Democratic Party.

On 18 October 2008, four state electorates (Lakemba, Ryde, Cabramatta, Port Macquarie) went to by-elections as a result of the resignation of the Premier, two of his ministers, and an independent who left after winning a federal by-election. The results in Ryde, Cabramatta, and Lakemba showed the largest by-election swing against Labor in its history. The results showed a significant swing towards the Liberal Party with a swing of 22.7 percentage points in former health minister Reba Meagher's seat of Cabramatta, but it was retained by ALP candidate Nick Lalich, and a swing of 13 points against Labor in former premier Morris Iemma's seat of Lakemba, also retained by an ALP candidate, Robert Furolo. Ryde, once a safe Labor seat, with a swing of 23.1 points delivered former deputy premier John Watkins' seat to Victor Dominello. Peter Besseling, the independent candidate, won Port Macquarie, left vacant after the resignation of Nationals-turned-independent member Rob Oakeshott, over the Nationals by a two-party margin of 54.5–45.5%, despite a swing of 23.7 points to the Nationals. On 19 June 2010 a by-election in the electoral district of Penrith was triggered as a result of the resignation of Labor Party MP Karyn Paluzzano, with Liberal candidate Stuart Ayres winning the seat with a two-party-preferred swing of more than 25 points, the biggest swing against an incumbent government in New South Wales history, until the 2013 Miranda by-election which eclipsed it with a 26-point two-party swing against the Liberal/National government.

Key dates

• Expiry of 54th Parliament: 12am on Friday, 4 March 2011
• Issue of Writs: 5 March 2011
• Close of Nominations: 10 March 2011
• Polling Day: Saturday 26 March 2011
• Return of the Writs: 30 April 2011
• Meeting of 55th Parliament: By Monday, 16 May 2011

Campaign

See also: Candidates of the 2011 New South Wales state election

The Labor Party launched their campaign on 5 February 2011 in Liverpool within the electoral district of Macquarie Fields. Premier Keneally launched the Labor Party's campaign slogan "Protecting jobs – Supporting families". In attendance for the launch were former Prime Minister Bob Hawke and former Premiers Wran and Carr.

The Liberal and Nationals Coalition launched their campaign on 20 February 2011 at the Joan Sutherland Performing Arts Centre in Penrith within the electoral district of Penrith with the slogan: "Real Change for NSW". In attendance for the launch were both Liberal and Nationals Leaders O'Farrell and Stoner as well as federal Liberal Party leader Tony Abbott, former Liberal Premiers and Leaders Greiner, Fahey, and Chikarovski.

The Coalition had been leading in opinion polling for almost three years, and were unbackable favourites throughout the campaign to win the election. The final Newspoll had support for Labor at an all-time low with 23 percent of the primary vote and 35.9 percent of the two-party vote. Bookmakers were paying $1.01 for a Coalition win with Labor getting as much as $36 and one agency even paid out the winnings and declared the winner a week earlier. At one point, Labor was widely predicted to win as few as 13 seats, seven less than the actual result. According to several pollsters, Labor was in danger of losing several seats where it had not been seriously threatened in decades, as well as several that it had held for a century or more. Indeed, there were concerns that Labor would not win enough seats to form a credible shadow cabinet.

Resulting parliament

The Liberal/National Coalition won the largest proportional number of seats in NSW state history with 69 of 93 seats in the lower house (74.2 percent of the chamber)—in contrast, Labor won 69 of 99 seats (69.7 percent of the chamber) at Neville Wran's second "Wranslide" in 1981 election. Labor won 20 seats, the lowest for Labor in NSW Parliament in over a century, and the worst defeat that a sitting government in NSW has ever suffered. Many prominent Labor MPs and ministers lost their seats including Verity Firth, David Borger, Matt Brown, Jodi McKay, Virginia Judge, Phil Costa and Kevin Greene. In the process, the Coalition took dozens of seats in areas considered Labor heartland, such as western Sydney and the Upper Hunter—some on swings of well over 10 per cent. The Liberals actually won 51 seats, enough for a majority in their own right—the first time the main non-Labor party in the state had achieved this since adopting the Liberal banner in 1945. Although O'Farrell thus had no need for the support of the Nationals, he opted to retain the Coalition.

In the upper house however, where half of the chamber was up for election, the landslide was not enough to deliver a Coalition majority. Three additional votes outside of the Liberal/National Coalition were required to pass legislation. The balance of power shifted from the Greens to the Shooters and Fishers Party and Christian Democratic Party. With two seats each held by the latter two parties, both needed to give legislative support if Labor and the Greens opposed legislation.

Retiring members

Where a Member of the Legislative Assembly or Legislative Council did not renominate to contest the election, their term ended at the dissolution of the parliament. Members who confirmed their retirement were:

Legislative Assembly

Labor (22)

• Marie Andrews (Gosford)
• John Aquilina (Riverstone)
• Diane Beamer (Mulgoa)
• David Campbell (Keira)
• Barry Collier (Miranda)
• Angela D'Amore (Drummoyne)
• Tanya Gadiel (Parramatta)
• Paul Gibson (Blacktown)
• Kerry Hickey (Cessnock)
• Phil Koperberg (Blue Mountains)
• Grant McBride (The Entrance)
• Gerard Martin (Bathurst)
• Lylea McMahon (Shellharbour)
• Alison Megarrity (Menai)
• Frank Sartor (Rockdale)
• Tony Stewart (Bankstown)
• Joe Tripodi (Fairfield)
• Graham West (Campbelltown)

Liberal (5)

• Peter Debnam (Vaucluse)
• Judy Hopwood (Hornsby)
• Malcolm Kerr (Cronulla)
• Wayne Merton (Baulkham Hills)
• Michael Richardson (Castle Hill)

Nationals (2)

• John Turner (Myall Lakes)
• Russell Turner (Orange)

Legislative Council

Labor (4)

• Tony Catanzariti
• Kayee Griffin
• Christine Robertson
• Ian West

Greens (1)

• Ian Cohen

Opinion polling

Main article: Opinion polling for the 2011 New South Wales state election

Opinion polling was conducted by firms such as Newspoll, Galaxy and Nielsen via random telephone number selection in city and country areas Sampling sizes consist of around 1200–1300 electors. The declared margin of error is ±3 percentage points.

Newspaper endorsements

Newspaper	Endorsement
The Australian		Liberal
The Australian Financial Review		Liberal
Newcastle Herald		Liberal
The Daily Telegraph		Liberal
The Sydney Morning Herald		Liberal

Results

Legislative Assembly

Main article: Results of the 2011 New South Wales state election (Legislative Assembly)

For pendulum immediately after the 2011 election, see Post-election pendulum for the 2011 New South Wales state election.

Legislative Assembly (IRV) – (CV)

Party			Votes	%	Swing	Seats	Change
		Liberal	1,602,457	38.58	+11.64	51	29
		National	521,864	12.56	+2.51	18	5
	Coalition total		2,124,321	51.15	+14.16	69	34
	Labor		1,061,352	25.55	–13.43	20	32
	Greens		427,144	10.28	+1.33	1	1
	Christian Democrats		129,431	3.12	+0.65	0
	Hatton's Independent Team		45,969	1.10	+1.10	0
	Family First		18,576	0.45	+0.45	0
	Socialist Alliance		3,180	0.07	+0.07	0
	Social Justice Network		3,173	0.07	+0.07	0
	Independent Australia First		2,446	0.06	+0.06	0
	Socialist Equality		2,056	0.05	+0.05	0
	Democratic Labor		1,855	0.04	+0.04	0
	United We Stand		1,414	0.03	+0.03	0
	Progressive Labour		1,372	0.03	+0.03	0
	Communist League		1,226	0.03	+0.03	0
	Sex Party		676	0.02	+0.02	0
	Democrats		617	0.01	–0.39	0
	Independent Protectionist		289	0.01	+0.01	0
	Independents		314,066	7.56	–1.62	3	3
Formal votes			4,153,335	96.72	+0.18	–	–
Informal votes			137,260	3.20	+0.43	–	–
Total			4,290,595	–	–	93	–
Registered voters / turnout			4,635,810	92.55	–0.09	–	–
Two-party-preferred vote
	Coalition		2,324,226	64.22	+16.48
	Labor		1,294,824	35.78	–16.48

Popular vote Liberal   38.58% Labor   25.55% National   12.56% Greens   10.28% Independent   8.85% Christian Democrats   3.12% Family First   0.45% Others   0.60% Two-party-preferred vote Coalition   64.22% Labor   35.78% Parliamentary seats Liberal   51 Labor   20 National   18 Independent   3 Greens   1

Legislative Council

Main article: Results of the 2011 New South Wales state election (Legislative Council)

Legislative Council election, 2011

Party		Votes	%	+/–	Seats
					2011 Seats	2007 Seats	Total Seats	+/-
	Liberal/National Coalition	1,943,246	47.68	+13.50	11	8	19	+4
	Labor	967,242	23.73	-15.40	5	9	14	-5
	Greens	453,125	11.12	+2.00	3	2	5	+1
	Shooters and Fishers	150,741	3.70	+0.90	1	1	2	0
	Christian Democrats	127,233	3.12	-1.30	1	1	2	0
	Other	434,437	10.66	+0.30	0	0	0	0
Total		4,076,024	100.00	–	21	21	42	0

Seats changing hands

Seat	Pre-2011				Swing	Post-2011
	Party		Member	Margin		Margin	Member	Party
Balmain		Labor	Verity Firth	3.7	–7.2	3.5*	Jamie Parker	Greens
Bathurst		Labor	Gerard Martin	13.0	–36.7	23.7	Paul Toole	National
Blue Mountains		Labor	Phil Koperberg	11.1	–15.8	4.7	Roza Sage	Liberal
Camden		Labor	Geoff Corrigan	3.9	–22.8	18.9	Chris Patterson	Liberal
Campbelltown		Labor	Graham West	18.5	–21.9	3.4	Bryan Doyle	Liberal
Charlestown		Labor	Matthew Morris	14.6	–24.5	9.9	Andrew Cornwell	Liberal
Coogee		Labor	Paul Pearce	7.2	–15.4	8.2	Bruce Notley-Smith	Liberal
Dubbo		Independent	Dawn Fardell	0.9	–14.6	13.7	Troy Grant	National
Drummoyne		Labor	Angela D'Amore	7.6	–24.3	16.7	John Sidoti	Liberal
East Hills		Labor	Alan Ashton	14.1	–14.7	0.6	Glenn Brookes	Liberal
Gosford		Labor	Marie Andrews	4.9	–16.7	11.9	Chris Holstein	Liberal
Granville		Labor	David Borger	11.1	–13.7	2.6	Tony Issa	Liberal
Heathcote		Labor	Paul McLeay	8.8	–21.4	12.7	Lee Evans	Liberal
Kiama		Labor	Matt Brown	12.0	–19.5	7.5	Gareth Ward	Liberal
Londonderry		Labor	Allan Shearan	6.9	–19.2	12.3	Bart Bassett	Liberal
Maitland		Labor	Frank Terenzini	9.7	–16.0	6.3	Robyn Parker	Liberal
Menai		Labor	Alison Megarrity	2.7	–27.1	24.4	Melanie Gibbons	Liberal
Miranda		Labor	Barry Collier	0.8	–21.8	21.0	Graham Annesley	Liberal
Monaro		Labor	Steve Whan	6.3	–8.3	2.0	John Barilaro	National
Mulgoa		Labor	Diane Beamer	11.1	–23.2	12.0	Tanya Davies	Liberal
Newcastle		Labor	Jodi McKay	1.2	–3.6	2.4	Tim Owen	Liberal
Oatley		Labor	Kevin Greene	14.4	–14.9	0.5	Mark Coure	Liberal
Parramatta		Labor	Tanya Gadiel	13.7	–25.8	12.1	Geoff Lee	Liberal
Port Macquarie		Independent	Peter Besseling	28.2**	–35.1	6.9	Leslie Williams	National
Riverstone		Labor	John Aquilina	10.1	–30.3	20.2	Kevin Conolly	Liberal
Rockdale		Labor	Frank Sartor	10.3	–13.9	3.6	John Flowers	Liberal
Smithfield		Labor	Ninos Khoshaba	15.5	–20.3	4.8	Andrew Rohan	Liberal
Strathfield		Labor	Virginia Judge	15.1	–19.3	4.3	Charles Casuscelli	Liberal
Swansea		Labor	Robert Coombs	10.8	–11.9	1.1	Garry Edwards	Liberal
Tamworth		Independent	Peter Draper	4.8	–12.5	7.8	Kevin Anderson	National
The Entrance		Labor	Grant McBride	4.9	–17.3	12.5	Chris Spence	Liberal
Wollondilly		Labor	Phil Costa	3.3	–18.0	14.7	Jai Rowell	Liberal
Wyong		Labor	David Harris	6.9	–9.4	2.5	Darren Webber	Liberal

• *Figure is Greens v Liberal
• **Figure is from the 2007 state election, where Rob Oakeshott was the independent candidate.
• In addition, the Liberals retained Ryde and Penrith, which were gained from Labor at by-elections.
• Members listed in italics did not contest their seat at this election.

Every seat in New South Wales swung to the Coalition on a two-party-preferred basis. The Coalition won the largest government in New South Wales history in a huge landslide, while Labor suffered the largest swing against a sitting government anywhere in Australia (and on any level) since World War II, as well as one of the worst defeats of a state government since Federation. This led to 12 consecutive years of Coalition government in New South Wales (the longest Coalition government and the third-longest state government overall in New South Wales history), until the Coalition was narrowly defeated in 2023.

The Liberals alone won more first preference votes than Labor (usually it takes both Coalition parties, the Liberals and the Nationals, to have a higher first preference vote than Labor).

Labor only had two safe seats after the defeat, both of which were in Western Sydney. The seats were Bankstown (on a 10.3% margin) and Liverpool (on a 14.7% margin). Labor only held five seats outside of Sydney (Cessnock, Keira, Shellharbour, Wallsend and Wollongong).

Ultimately, the Liberals won 29 seats from Labor (Blue Mountains, Camden, Campbelltown, Charlestown, Coogee, Drummoyne, East Hills, Gosford, Granville, Heathcote, Kiama, Londonderry, Maitland, Menai, Miranda, Mulgoa, Newcastle, Oatley, Parramatta, Riverstone, Rockdale, Smithdale, Strathfield, Swansea, The Entrance, Wollondilly and Wyong) while the Nationals won two seats from Labor (Bathurst and Monaro). The Nationals gained three seats from independents (Dubbo, Port Macquarie and Tamworth), which were Nationals seats held by personally popular independents. It is likely that Port Macquarie and Tamworth were regained by the Nationals easily due to a move by two independents in the federal seats of Lyne (Rob Oakeshott) and New England (Tony Windsor), which partially overlap with the respective state seats, which angered the locals, who are mostly liberal conservatives in some of the most safely-held Coalition seats in the country. The move that supposedly caused this was the decision of these two independents to support Julia Gillard, who formed a Labor minority government, over the Coalition under Tony Abbott (although Oakeshott stated that he would have supported the Coalition if Malcolm Turnbull was their leader instead of Abbott). Oakeshott and Windsor were personally popular in these seats (with Oakeshott even being an ex-National), but on traditional two-party-preferred contests, the Nationals were well ahead of Labor. The member for Port Macquarie, Peter Besseling, was friends with Oakeshott and previously worked as his advisor, thus angering Port Macquarie locals. Independents held just three seats after the election: Lake Macquarie, Northern Tablelands and Sydney.

The Greens won their first ever seat in New South Wales, the formerly-safe Labor seat of Balmain in inner-city Sydney, despite the Liberals winning the first preference vote.

See also

• Government of New South Wales
• O'Farrell ministry
• First Baird ministry
• Shadow Ministry of John Robertson
• Post-election pendulum for the 2007 New South Wales state election
• Members of the New South Wales Legislative Assembly, 2011–2015
• Members of the New South Wales Legislative Council, 2011–2015

External links

• ABC Online: 2011 New South Wales Election
• Daily Telegraph: The New South Wales State Election 2011
• 2011 NSW State Election Candidates, Parties and Lobbyists - snapshots of their webpages from 2011